Gornik Zabrze 2-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 26 Oct 2025

📅26/10/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.0
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
30%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.0
Over 2.5
48%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.61
No
46%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.64
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.05
6+ Goals
10%
10.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.78
1/2
6%
33.0
1/X
6%
12.25
X/1
18%
5.03
X/2
11%
7.5
X/X
11%
4.92
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
23.55
2/2
13%
5.22
2/X
10%
13.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.55 — our 10% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-2.7pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.0pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+2.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
46%
+5.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
54%
-5.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.8pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gornik Zabrze EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 31%
+3% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +22%
1.64/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.57
+10% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +22%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
328 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 72%
26.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.8
19.4 Crosses 16.5
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gornik Zabrze
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.01 xG 1.95
52% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
370 Passes 341
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 29
19 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
04.05.2025 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-1 HT 1-1 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
03.11.2024 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 0-2 HT 0-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
02.03.2024 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 2-1 HT 1-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
27.08.2023 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 4-1 HT 3-1 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
11.03.2023 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-1 HT 2-1 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
26.08.2022 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 1-1 HT 0-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gornik Zabrze
2-1
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
2.86 xG 1.09
41% Ball Possession 59%
22 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
364 Passes 530
88% Pass Accuracy 89%
35 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia Bialystok
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gornik Zabrze squeezed past Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Gornik Zabrze as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Gornik Zabrze had 41% of the ball to Jagiellonia Bialystok's 59%, shots finished 22-15, expected goals 2.86 to 1.09 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Gornik Zabrze's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Jagiellonia Bialystok led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.83 for Jagiellonia Bialystok.

What was the final score of Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Gornik Zabrze 2-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 26/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gornik Zabrze win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Gornik Zabrze 43%, draw 27%, Jagiellonia Bialystok 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gornik Zabrze), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gornik Zabrze) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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