Amarante 1-0 Paredes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 26 Oct 2025

📅26/10/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.32
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
47%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.54
Over 2.5
45%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.06
No
50%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
4%
2/2
30%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
26%
-0.3pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.1pp
47%
Away Win
45%
+1.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
61%
-5.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
39%
+5.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
44%
+5.0pp
50%
BTTS No
56%
-5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Amarante EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Paredes EU Bookmakers 49%
-16% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
0.77/1.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/2.00
-34% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / -43%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
247 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 363 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.1 Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Amarante
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Paredes
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 11
3 Yellow Cards 1
26.11.2023 Paredes Paredes 0-2 HT 0-1 Amarante Amarante POK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Amarante
1-0
AWAY Paredes
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 8
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Amarante vs Paredes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Amarante edged past Paredes 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Paredes at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Amarante had 43% of the ball to Paredes's 57%, shots finished 10-8.

What was the final score of Amarante vs Paredes?

Amarante 1-0 Paredes in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 26/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Amarante vs Paredes?

Before kick-off our model rated an Paredes win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Amarante 26%, draw 27%, Paredes 47%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Paredes) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Paredes) ✓ Under 2.5
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