Exeter City 0-2 Birmingham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 26 Nov 2024

Exeter City
0-2 HT 0-1
Birmingham
📅26/11/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - 1st Division – 2024/2025

Exeter City vs Birmingham Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
4.48
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
47%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.03
Over 2.5
48%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.76
No
50%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.84
2-3 Goals
44%
1.85
4-5 Goals
21%
3.25
6+ Goals
10%
11.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.84 — our 25% vs market 21.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
8.01
1/2
13%
22.55
1/X
6%
16.25
X/1
6%
10.45
X/2
16%
3.92
X/X
9%
5.63
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
18%
2.06
2/X
11%
15.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
19%
+8.2pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.4pp
47%
Away Win
58%
-10.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
45%
+6.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
55%
-6.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.5pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Exeter City v Birmingham — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Exeter City EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Birmingham EU Bookmakers 62%
+18% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -47% / -47%
1.17/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/0.84
+14% / +34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -70% / -20%
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
219 · 64% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 75%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
13.9 Crosses 28.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.0

Exeter City 0-2 Birmingham — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Exeter City
0-2
AWAY Birmingham
0.08 xG 2.15
34% Ball Possession 66%
3 Total Shots 19
1 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 7
181 Passes 438
68% Pass Accuracy 83%
2 Box Touches 38
14 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Exeter City vs Birmingham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Birmingham saw off Exeter City 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Birmingham as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Exeter City had 34% of the ball to Birmingham's 66%, shots finished 3-19, expected goals 0.08 to 2.15.

What was the final score of Exeter City vs Birmingham?

Exeter City 0-2 Birmingham in the England - 1st Division on 26/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Exeter City vs Birmingham?

Before kick-off our model rated an Birmingham win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Exeter City 27%, draw 26%, Birmingham 47%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Birmingham), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Birmingham) ✓ Under 2.5
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