Gremio 3-2 Palmeiras — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 26 Nov 2025

📅26/11/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.19
Draw
24%
3.11
Away
32%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.68
Over 2.5
48%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.85
No
49%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.73
2-3 Goals
43%
1.76
4-5 Goals
19%
4.13
6+ Goals
9%
19.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
3.37
1/2
8%
35.0
1/X
10%
13.4
X/1
14%
5.1
X/2
7%
6.39
X/X
7%
4.21
2/1
6%
29.0
2/2
17%
4.76
2/X
7%
13.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+2.3pp
24%
Draw
28%
-4.7pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+2.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
56%
-3.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
44%
+3.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
50%
+1.5pp
49%
BTTS No
50%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gremio EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 34%
+8% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -1%
1.33/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.34
-2% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -2%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
316 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 81%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
18.6 Crosses 18.6
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gremio
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Palmeiras
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.84 xG 2.10
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 8
252 Passes 398
75% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 29
11 Crosses 27
3 Yellow Cards 3
27.07.2025 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-0 HT 1-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
09.11.2024 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-0 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
05.07.2024 Gremio Gremio 2-2 HT 1-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
22.09.2023 Gremio Gremio 1-0 HT 1-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
11.05.2023 Palmeiras Palmeiras 4-1 HT 1-1 Gremio Gremio BR1
31.10.2021 Gremio Gremio 1-3 HT 1-2 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gremio
3-2
AWAY Palmeiras
2.82 xG 2.14
46% Ball Possession 54%
19 Total Shots 22
11 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 3
335 Passes 408
87% Pass Accuracy 88%
22 Box Touches 24
18 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Gremio vs Palmeiras
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gremio nicked a narrow win over Palmeiras 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Gremio as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Gremio had 46% of the ball to Palmeiras's 54%, shots finished 19-22, expected goals 2.82 to 2.14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palmeiras led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Gremio and 1.83 for Palmeiras.

What was the final score of Gremio vs Palmeiras?

Gremio 3-2 Palmeiras in the Brazil - Serie A on 26/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gremio vs Palmeiras?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gremio win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Gremio 44%, draw 24%, Palmeiras 32%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gremio), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gremio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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