Gremio vs Palmeiras Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Gremio v Palmeiras — Team-Based Signals
Gremio vs Palmeiras Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 1-0
Palmeiras
BR1
4-1
HT 1-1
Gremio
BR1
1-3
HT 1-2
Palmeiras
BR1
Gremio 3-2 Palmeiras — Actual Match Statistics
Gremio nicked a narrow win over Palmeiras 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Gremio as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.
On the day, Gremio had 46% of the ball to Palmeiras's 54%, shots finished 19-22, expected goals 2.82 to 2.14.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palmeiras led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Gremio and 1.83 for Palmeiras.
What was the final score of Gremio vs Palmeiras?
Gremio 3-2 Palmeiras in the Brazil - Serie A on 26/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Gremio vs Palmeiras?
Before kick-off our model rated a Gremio win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Gremio 44%, draw 24%, Palmeiras 32%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gremio), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.