Palmeiras 1-0 Gremio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 27 Jul 2025

📅27/07/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.45
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
24%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.75
Over 2.5
46%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.19
No
54%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.9
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
3.86
6+ Goals
9%
17.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1.8
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
18.95
X/1
19%
3.7
X/2
9%
14.1
X/X
10%
5.4
2/1
9%
26.5
2/2
10%
13.2
2/X
7%
22.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
65%
-12.7pp
24%
Draw
22%
+1.4pp
24%
Away Win
13%
+11.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
53%
+0.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
47%
-0.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
42%
+4.6pp
54%
BTTS No
58%
-4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Gremio EU Bookmakers 16%
-4% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -14%
1.90/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.94
-1% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / -2%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
371 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 77%
27.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
25.8 Crosses 11.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Palmeiras
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Gremio
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.37 xG 0.82
57% Ball Possession 43%
22 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
376 Passes 272
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
30 Box Touches 16
27 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
09.11.2024 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-0 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
05.07.2024 Gremio Gremio 2-2 HT 1-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
22.09.2023 Gremio Gremio 1-0 HT 1-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
11.05.2023 Palmeiras Palmeiras 4-1 HT 1-1 Gremio Gremio BR1
31.10.2021 Gremio Gremio 1-3 HT 1-2 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
08.07.2021 Palmeiras Palmeiras 2-0 HT 2-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Palmeiras
1-0
AWAY Gremio
0.55 xG 0.91
61% Ball Possession 39%
10 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 3
494 Passes 292
87% Pass Accuracy 81%
15 Box Touches 9
10 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Palmeiras vs Gremio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palmeiras nicked a narrow win over Gremio 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Palmeiras as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Palmeiras had 61% of the ball to Gremio's 39%, shots finished 10-5, expected goals 0.55 to 0.91.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palmeiras had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Palmeiras and 0.83 for Gremio.

What was the final score of Palmeiras vs Gremio?

Palmeiras 1-0 Gremio in the Brazil - Serie A on 27/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Palmeiras vs Gremio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Palmeiras 52%, draw 24%, Gremio 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palmeiras), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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