Fortaleza 3-1 Bragantino — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 27 Jul 2025

📅27/07/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.76
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
29%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.91
Over 2.5
45%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.75
No
53%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.4
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
18%
3.38
6+ Goals
11%
12.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.4 — our 30% vs market 23.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.37
1/2
8%
35.0
1/X
6%
13.75
X/1
19%
4.43
X/2
6%
8.89
X/X
16%
5.07
2/1
7%
23.3
2/2
15%
6.92
2/X
5%
15.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
53%
-8.4pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.4pp
29%
Away Win
23%
+5.9pp
55%
Under 2.5
48%
+7.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
52%
-7.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.3pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortaleza EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Bragantino EU Bookmakers 26%
+4% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +7%
1.71/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.20
+7% / +66% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -5%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
333 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 79%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
22.6 Crosses 19.7
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortaleza
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Bragantino
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.72 xG 1.48
44% Ball Possession 56%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
256 Passes 348
74% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 17
15 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 3
18.08.2024 Bragantino 1-2 HT 1-1 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
29.04.2024 Fortaleza Fortaleza 1-1 HT 1-1 Bragantino BR1
01.12.2023 Bragantino 1-2 HT 1-2 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
10.11.2022 Fortaleza Fortaleza 6-0 HT 4-0 Bragantino BR1
21.07.2022 Bragantino 2-1 HT 1-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
14.11.2021 Bragantino 3-0 HT 2-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortaleza
3-1
AWAY Bragantino
1.98 xG 0.89
42% Ball Possession 58%
21 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 5
288 Passes 397
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
24 Box Touches 20
13 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Fortaleza vs Bragantino
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortaleza saw off Bragantino 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Fortaleza as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fortaleza had 42% of the ball to Bragantino's 58%, shots finished 21-10, expected goals 1.98 to 0.89.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fortaleza had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Fortaleza and 1.33 for Bragantino.

What was the final score of Fortaleza vs Bragantino?

Fortaleza 3-1 Bragantino in the Brazil - Serie A on 27/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortaleza vs Bragantino?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fortaleza win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Fortaleza 44%, draw 27%, Bragantino 29%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fortaleza) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fortaleza) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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