Sao Paulo 3-1 Fluminense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 27 Jul 2025

Sao Paulo
3-1 HT 1-0
Fluminense
📅27/07/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2025

Sao Paulo vs Fluminense Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.02
Draw
31%
2.94
Away
31%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.44
Over 2.5
36%
2.63
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.29
No
59%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
1.99
2-3 Goals
38%
1.83
4-5 Goals
16%
6.34
6+ Goals
8%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.04
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
8%
15.95
X/1
16%
4.27
X/2
14%
7.13
X/X
16%
3.53
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
12%
6.54
2/X
7%
17.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
45%
-7.3pp
31%
Draw
30%
+0.9pp
31%
Away Win
25%
+6.3pp
64%
Under 2.5
66%
-2.0pp
36%
Over 2.5
34%
+2.0pp
41%
BTTS Yes
40%
+1.2pp
59%
BTTS No
60%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sao Paulo v Fluminense — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Fluminense EU Bookmakers 29%
+3% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
1.28/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.33
+5% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +1%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
349 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 80%
21.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
20.8 Crosses 15.5
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.3

Sao Paulo vs Fluminense Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sao Paulo
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Fluminense
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.88 xG 0.82
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
332 Passes 428
83% Pass Accuracy 87%
20 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
02.09.2024 Fluminense Fluminense 2-0 HT 1-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
14.05.2024 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-1 HT 1-1 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
23.11.2023 Fluminense Fluminense 1-0 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
01.07.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-0 HT 0-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
05.11.2022 Fluminense Fluminense 3-1 HT 0-1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
17.07.2022 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-2 HT 2-1 Fluminense Fluminense BR1

Sao Paulo 3-1 Fluminense — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sao Paulo
3-1
AWAY Fluminense
2.36 xG 0.24
47% Ball Possession 53%
15 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 3
346 Passes 416
84% Pass Accuracy 88%
18 Box Touches 10
13 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Sao Paulo vs Fluminense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sao Paulo beat Fluminense 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (38% / 31% / 31%) promised a tight game; Sao Paulo found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sao Paulo had 47% of the ball to Fluminense's 53%, shots finished 15-7, expected goals 2.36 to 0.24.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fluminense led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sao Paulo and 1.50 for Fluminense.

What was the final score of Sao Paulo vs Fluminense?

Sao Paulo 3-1 Fluminense in the Brazil - Serie A on 27/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sao Paulo vs Fluminense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sao Paulo win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Sao Paulo 38%, draw 31%, Fluminense 31%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sao Paulo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sao Paulo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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