Cruzeiro 1-2 Ceara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 27 Jul 2025

📅27/07/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.49
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
22%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.62
Over 2.5
48%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.4
No
53%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.51
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.53
6+ Goals
9%
24.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.89
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
19.35
X/1
16%
3.63
X/2
10%
13.25
X/X
11%
4.8
2/1
11%
29.5
2/2
7%
12.85
2/X
8%
22.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
63%
-9.6pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.4pp
22%
Away Win
14%
+8.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
58%
-5.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
42%
+5.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
38%
+9.1pp
53%
BTTS No
62%
-9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cruzeiro EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Ceara EU Bookmakers 17%
-6% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -2%
1.65/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.75
+4% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +0%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
392 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 77%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
22.3 Crosses 16.2
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cruzeiro
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Ceara
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.42 xG 1.45
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
470 Passes 317
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.09.2019 Ceara Ceara 0-0 HT 0-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
02.05.2019 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-0 HT 0-0 Ceara Ceara BR1
25.10.2018 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 0-2 HT 0-0 Ceara Ceara BR1
04.06.2018 Ceara Ceara 0-1 HT 0-1 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
27.11.2011 Ceara Ceara 2-2 HT 1-1 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
21.08.2011 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-0 HT 0-0 Ceara Ceara BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cruzeiro
1-2
AWAY Ceara
1.35 xG 0.69
64% Ball Possession 36%
16 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 3
433 Passes 228
85% Pass Accuracy 79%
28 Box Touches 7
35 Crosses 16
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cruzeiro vs Ceara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ceara squeezed past Cruzeiro 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Cruzeiro at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Cruzeiro had 64% of the ball to Ceara's 36%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 1.35 to 0.69 — the balance of chances actually favoured Cruzeiro.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cruzeiro had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Cruzeiro and 0.67 for Ceara.

What was the final score of Cruzeiro vs Ceara?

Cruzeiro 1-2 Ceara in the Brazil - Serie A on 27/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cruzeiro vs Ceara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cruzeiro win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Cruzeiro 53%, draw 24%, Ceara 22%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Cruzeiro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR1 More Brazil - Serie A
27 Jul 2025
00:30 Botafogo vs Corinthians Analysis →
00:30 Sport Recife vs Santos Analysis →
00:30 Mirassol FC vs Vitoria Analysis →
00:30 Fortaleza vs Bragantino Analysis →
03:00 Palmeiras vs Gremio Analysis →
22:00 Sao Paulo vs Fluminense Analysis →