Krasnodar 4-0 FK Orenburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Cup, 26 Nov 2025

📅26/11/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.43
Draw
18%
4.49
Away
20%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.38
Over 2.5
60%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.73
No
43%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.82
2-3 Goals
38%
1.95
4-5 Goals
27%
2.74
6+ Goals
14%
7.17
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1.71
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
17.1
X/1
14%
4.07
X/2
5%
14.0
X/X
6%
7.23
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
20.2
2/2
10%
10.95
2/X
6%
19.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.2 — our 10% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
66%
-3.9pp
18%
Draw
19%
-1.3pp
20%
Away Win
15%
+5.2pp
40%
Under 2.5
38%
+2.0pp
60%
Over 2.5
62%
-2.0pp
57%
BTTS Yes
54%
+3.4pp
43%
BTTS No
46%
-3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Krasnodar EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Orenburg EU Bookmakers 18%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
1.96/0.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.84
-1% / +34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +4%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
451 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Krasnodar
6W-0D-0L
AWAY FK Orenburg
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.69 xG 1.03
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
318 Passes 276
79% Pass Accuracy 75%
28 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
05.11.2025 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 1-3 HT 1-1 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUK
10.08.2025 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 0-1 HT 0-0 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
17.05.2025 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 1-2 HT 1-1 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
03.11.2024 Krasnodar Krasnodar 4-0 HT 1-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
03.12.2023 Krasnodar Krasnodar 2-1 HT 1-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
12.08.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 0-2 HT 0-0 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Krasnodar
4-0
AWAY FK Orenburg
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 11
4 Corners 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Krasnodar vs FK Orenburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Krasnodar swept aside FK Orenburg 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Krasnodar as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (60%) landed while both teams to score (57%) missed.

On the day, Krasnodar had 49% of the ball to FK Orenburg's 51%, shots finished 14-20.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Krasnodar had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Krasnodar and 0.50 for FK Orenburg.

What was the final score of Krasnodar vs FK Orenburg?

Krasnodar 4-0 FK Orenburg in the Russia - Cup on 26/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Krasnodar vs FK Orenburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Krasnodar win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Krasnodar 62%, draw 18%, FK Orenburg 20%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Krasnodar), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Krasnodar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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