Newcastle Jets 4-5 Macarthur — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 26 Dec 2025

📅26/12/2025 · 🕒11:35 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.82
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
29%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.74
Over 2.5
58%
1.41
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.41
No
44%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
6.19
2-3 Goals
35%
2.11
4-5 Goals
29%
2.5
6+ Goals
12%
5.24
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.37
1/2
6%
30.0
1/X
7%
13.05
X/1
14%
5.03
X/2
8%
8.57
X/X
13%
6.75
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
19.15
2/2
15%
5.35
2/X
5%
13.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.15 — our 10% vs market 3.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
51%
-4.8pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.8pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+3.0pp
42%
Under 2.5
33%
+9.1pp
58%
Over 2.5
67%
-9.1pp
56%
BTTS Yes
67%
-10.8pp
44%
BTTS No
33%
+10.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newcastle Jets EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Macarthur EU Bookmakers 30%
-10% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +15%
2.11/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.73/1.80
+21% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +4%
51% Ball Possession 49%
17 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
363 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 80%
33.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.1
22.6 Crosses 22.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newcastle Jets
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Macarthur
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.72 xG 2.52
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 9
386 Passes 387
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
29 Box Touches 33
18 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.03.2025 Macarthur Macarthur 3-3 HT 0-2 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
12.01.2025 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 1-3 HT 1-1 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
25.10.2024 Macarthur Macarthur 1-2 HT 1-0 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
25.02.2024 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 2-2 HT 0-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
05.01.2024 Macarthur Macarthur 1-1 HT 0-1 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
14.04.2023 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 2-1 HT 0-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newcastle Jets
4-5
AWAY Macarthur
2.23 xG 2.70
63% Ball Possession 37%
17 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
425 Passes 207
85% Pass Accuracy 72%
34 Box Touches 25
8 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Macarthur nicked a narrow win over Newcastle Jets 5-4 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 9 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Newcastle Jets at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Newcastle Jets had 63% of the ball to Macarthur's 37%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 2.23 to 2.70.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newcastle Jets had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Newcastle Jets and 1.83 for Macarthur.

What was the final score of Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur?

Newcastle Jets 4-5 Macarthur in the Australia - A-League on 26/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newcastle Jets win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Newcastle Jets 46%, draw 25%, Macarthur 29%. The final score 4-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Newcastle Jets) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Newcastle Jets) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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