Macarthur 3-3 Newcastle Jets — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 28 Mar 2025

📅28/03/2025 · 🕒11:35 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.25
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
35%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.38
Over 2.5
57%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.46
No
44%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.06
2-3 Goals
38%
1.97
4-5 Goals
27%
2.68
6+ Goals
14%
6.69
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.26
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
25.0
1/X
9%
12.2
X/1
10%
5.89
X/2
15%
6.56
X/X
9%
5.76
2/1
8%
22.9
2/2
11%
3.87
2/X
6%
12.35
Value flag · 1/2 at 25.0 — our 9% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
41%
+0.0pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.3pp
35%
Away Win
34%
+0.3pp
43%
Under 2.5
38%
+4.5pp
57%
Over 2.5
62%
-4.5pp
56%
BTTS Yes
64%
-8.8pp
44%
BTTS No
36%
+8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Macarthur EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Newcastle Jets EU Bookmakers 38%
+4% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +3%
1.71/1.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.67/1.68
-1% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +1%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
365 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 415 · 83%
29.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.1
24.6 Crosses 18.7
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Macarthur
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Newcastle Jets
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.24 xG 1.55
52% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 5
397 Passes 372
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
30 Box Touches 27
27 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.01.2025 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 1-3 HT 1-1 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
25.10.2024 Macarthur Macarthur 1-2 HT 1-0 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
25.02.2024 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 2-2 HT 0-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
05.01.2024 Macarthur Macarthur 1-1 HT 0-1 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
14.04.2023 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 2-1 HT 0-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
18.02.2023 Macarthur Macarthur 0-1 HT 0-1 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Macarthur
3-3
AWAY Newcastle Jets
3.24 xG 1.56
58% Ball Possession 42%
32 Total Shots 15
10 Shots on Target 7
12 Corners 4
380 Passes 270
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
47 Box Touches 18
40 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Macarthur vs Newcastle Jets
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Macarthur and Newcastle Jets shared the points in a 3-3 draw. Half-time: 0-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Macarthur at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Macarthur had 58% of the ball to Newcastle Jets's 42%, shots finished 32-15, expected goals 3.24 to 1.56.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newcastle Jets led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Macarthur and 1.50 for Newcastle Jets.

What was the final score of Macarthur vs Newcastle Jets?

Macarthur 3-3 Newcastle Jets in the Australia - A-League on 28/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Macarthur vs Newcastle Jets?

Before kick-off our model rated a Macarthur win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Macarthur 41%, draw 25%, Newcastle Jets 35%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Macarthur) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Macarthur) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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