Auxerre 1-1 Guingamp — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 27 Jan 2024

Auxerre
1-1 HT 1-1
Guingamp
📅27/01/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
France - Ligue 2 – 2023/2024

Auxerre vs Guingamp Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.02
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
34%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.74
Over 2.5
41%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.85
No
58%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.86
2-3 Goals
45%
1.76
4-5 Goals
17%
4.02
6+ Goals
9%
18.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.87
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
7%
13.45
X/1
13%
4.47
X/2 EV+ ✗
18%
6.93
X/X
11%
4.24
2/1
6%
27.5
2/2
9%
5.33
2/X
6%
13.9
Value flag · X/2 at 6.93 — our 18% vs market 10.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
45%
-3.0pp
24%
Draw
28%
-3.4pp
33%
Away Win
27%
+6.5pp
59%
Under 2.5
54%
+5.3pp
41%
Over 2.5
46%
-5.3pp
42%
BTTS Yes
50%
-8.2pp
58%
BTTS No
50%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Auxerre v Guingamp — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Auxerre EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Guingamp EU Bookmakers 31%
-8% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +2%
1.62/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.33
+18% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / -1%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
375 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 78%
23.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
20.9 Crosses 17.9
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.9

Auxerre vs Guingamp Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Auxerre
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Guingamp
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.30 xG 1.14
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
477 Passes 266
83% Pass Accuracy 73%
20 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
06.11.2023 Guingamp Guingamp 2-1 HT 0-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR2
05.02.2022 Guingamp Guingamp 1-1 HT 0-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR2
23.08.2021 Auxerre Auxerre 1-2 HT 0-1 Guingamp Guingamp FR2
13.02.2021 Auxerre Auxerre 1-1 HT 1-1 Guingamp Guingamp FR2
19.10.2020 Guingamp Guingamp 2-0 HT 0-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR2
31.01.2020 Guingamp Guingamp 1-0 HT 0-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR2

Auxerre 1-1 Guingamp — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Auxerre
1-1
AWAY Guingamp
0.86 xG 0.43
62% Ball Possession 38%
8 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 3
480 Passes 267
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
11 Box Touches 14
15 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Auxerre vs Guingamp
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Auxerre and Guingamp shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Auxerre at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (59%) landed while no to both teams scoring (58%) missed.

On the day, Auxerre had 62% of the ball to Guingamp's 38%, shots finished 8-7, expected goals 0.86 to 0.43.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guingamp led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Auxerre and 1.50 for Guingamp.

What was the final score of Auxerre vs Guingamp?

Auxerre 1-1 Guingamp in the France - Ligue 2 on 27/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Auxerre vs Guingamp?

Before kick-off our model rated a Auxerre win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Auxerre 42%, draw 24%, Guingamp 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Auxerre), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Auxerre) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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