Saint-Etienne 0-1 Amiens SC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 27 Jan 2024

Saint-Etienne
0-1 HT 0-1
Amiens SC
📅27/01/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✓
France - Ligue 2 – 2023/2024

Saint-Etienne vs Amiens SC Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
1.92
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
34%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.71
Over 2.5
42%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.88
No
56%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
34%
2.81
2-3 Goals
37%
1.76
4-5 Goals
20%
4.1
6+ Goals
9%
19.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.81 — our 34% vs market 29.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.65
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
8%
13.45
X/1
14%
4.29
X/2 EV+ ✗
17%
7.71
X/X
15%
4.17
2/1
7%
27.5
2/2
11%
6.1
2/X
5%
14.1
Value flag · X/2 at 7.71 — our 17% vs market 9.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
48%
-10.4pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.1pp
34%
Away Win
24%
+10.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
55%
+3.8pp
42%
Over 2.5
45%
-3.8pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.8pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Saint-Etienne v Amiens SC — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Saint-Etienne EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Amiens SC EU Bookmakers 28%
-15% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -14%
1.05/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.46
-30% / -36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -20%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
332 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 79%
17.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
18.7 Crosses 17.3
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.8

Saint-Etienne vs Amiens SC Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Saint-Etienne
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Amiens SC
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.28 xG 1.09
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
396 Passes 276
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
23 Box Touches 15
26 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.12.2023 Amiens SC Amiens SC 1-0 HT 1-0 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR2
11.03.2023 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 1-1 HT 0-0 Amiens SC Amiens SC FR2
22.10.2022 Amiens SC Amiens SC 0-1 HT 0-0 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR2
27.10.2019 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 2-2 HT 1-0 Amiens SC Amiens SC FR1
06.04.2019 Amiens SC Amiens SC 2-2 HT 1-1 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR1
02.09.2018 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 0-0 HT 0-0 Amiens SC Amiens SC FR1

Saint-Etienne 0-1 Amiens SC — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Saint-Etienne
0-1
AWAY Amiens SC
1.06 xG 0.47
62% Ball Possession 38%
18 Total Shots 3
2 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 4
416 Passes 234
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
26 Box Touches 8
39 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Saint-Etienne vs Amiens SC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Amiens SC squeezed past Saint-Etienne 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (38% / 28% / 34%) promised a tight game; Amiens SC found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Saint-Etienne had 62% of the ball to Amiens SC's 38%, shots finished 18-3, expected goals 1.06 to 0.47 — on chances, Saint-Etienne could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Saint-Etienne and 1.00 for Amiens SC.

What was the final score of Saint-Etienne vs Amiens SC?

Saint-Etienne 0-1 Amiens SC in the France - Ligue 2 on 27/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Saint-Etienne vs Amiens SC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Saint-Etienne win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Saint-Etienne 38%, draw 28%, Amiens SC 34%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Saint-Etienne) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Saint-Etienne) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FR2 More France - Ligue 2
27 Jan 2024
21:00 Caen vs Troyes Analysis →
21:00 Ajaccio vs Concarneau Analysis →
21:00 Paris FC vs Dunkerque Analysis →
21:00 Auxerre vs Guingamp Analysis →
21:00 Annecy vs Pau Analysis →
21:00 Quevilly vs Grenoble Analysis →