Welling United 3-2 Truro City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 27 Feb 2024

📅27/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.33
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
32%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.11
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.76
6+ Goals
9%
16.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.11 — our 30% vs market 26.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
15%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
39%
+0.5pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.4pp
32%
Away Win
32%
-0.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.6pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Welling United EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Truro City EU Bookmakers 36%
-1% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
1.16/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.38
-20% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +2%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
307 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Welling United
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Truro City
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 5.00
62% Ball Possession 38%
10 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 10
3 Corners 3
05.08.2023 Truro City Truro City 5-2 HT 5-1 Welling United Welling United İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Welling United
3-2
AWAY Truro City
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 4
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Welling United vs Truro City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Welling United squeezed past Truro City 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 28% / 32% — and on the day Welling United made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Welling United had 61% of the ball to Truro City's 39%, shots finished 14-12.

What was the final score of Welling United vs Truro City?

Welling United 3-2 Truro City in the England - Conference on 27/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Welling United vs Truro City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Welling United win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Welling United 40%, draw 28%, Truro City 32%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Welling United), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Welling United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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