Atletico San Luis 3-1 Guadalajara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 27 Feb 2025

📅27/02/2025 · 🕒06:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
3.32
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
37%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.86
Over 2.5
44%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.75
No
54%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.13
2-3 Goals
38%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
3.37
6+ Goals
9%
13.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.13 — our 32% vs market 25.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
10%
X/2
21%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
27%
+10.0pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.4pp
37%
Away Win
47%
-9.7pp
56%
Under 2.5
50%
+6.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
50%
-6.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.9pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico San Luis EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 51%
+3% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
1.07/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.23
+13% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -39% / +43%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
264 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 81%
16.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.5
15.0 Crosses 23.7
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico San Luis
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Guadalajara
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.70 xG 1.15
43% Ball Possession 57%
6 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
294 Passes 401
76% Pass Accuracy 84%
12 Box Touches 24
11 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.11.2024 Guadalajara Guadalajara 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
05.02.2024 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 0-2 HT 0-1 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
09.07.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 3-1 HT 2-1 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
14.01.2023 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 0-0 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
10.07.2022 Guadalajara Guadalajara 0-1 HT 0-1 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
03.03.2022 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 2-2 HT 2-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico San Luis
3-1
AWAY Guadalajara
0.63 xG 1.84
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 8
347 Passes 499
83% Pass Accuracy 87%
18 Box Touches 32
10 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atletico San Luis vs Guadalajara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico San Luis got the better of Guadalajara 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 26% / 37% — and on the day Atletico San Luis made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Atletico San Luis had 42% of the ball to Guadalajara's 58%, shots finished 8-19, expected goals 0.63 to 1.84 — the balance of chances actually favoured Guadalajara.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Atletico San Luis and 1.17 for Guadalajara.

What was the final score of Atletico San Luis vs Guadalajara?

Atletico San Luis 3-1 Guadalajara in the Mexico - Primera on 27/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico San Luis vs Guadalajara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico San Luis win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Atletico San Luis 37%, draw 26%, Guadalajara 37%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (37/26/37) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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