Toluca vs Queretaro Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Toluca v Queretaro — Team-Based Signals
Toluca vs Queretaro Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-1
HT 1-1
Queretaro
MEK
1-0
HT 1-0
Toluca
MEK
4-1
HT 2-0
Queretaro
MEK
1-1
HT 1-0
Toluca
MEK
Toluca 5-0 Queretaro — Actual Match Statistics
Toluca cruised past Queretaro 5-0. Half-time: 4-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Toluca as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Toluca had 75% of the ball to Queretaro's 25%, shots finished 19-6, expected goals 1.91 to 0.72.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toluca had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Toluca and 1.00 for Queretaro.
What was the final score of Toluca vs Queretaro?
Toluca 5-0 Queretaro in the Mexico - Primera on 27/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Toluca vs Queretaro?
Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Toluca 59%, draw 23%, Queretaro 18%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toluca), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.