Pachuca 2-1 Puebla — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 27 Feb 2025

📅27/02/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.53
Draw
27%
3.94
Away
24%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.1
Over 2.5
48%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.81
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
21%
2.94
6+ Goals
11%
9.24
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.81 — our 27% vs market 19.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
17%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
11%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
61%
-11.6pp
27%
Draw
22%
+5.0pp
24%
Away Win
17%
+6.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.8pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pachuca EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Puebla EU Bookmakers 21%
+0% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -7%
1.83/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.97
-3% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +2%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
331 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 76%
25.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.7
20.9 Crosses 15.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pachuca
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Puebla
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.84 xG 0.93
54% Ball Possession 46%
20 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
316 Passes 250
78% Pass Accuracy 73%
32 Box Touches 12
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.09.2024 Puebla Puebla 2-3 HT 1-2 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
21.02.2024 Puebla Puebla 1-4 HT 1-1 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
29.10.2023 Pachuca Pachuca 1-1 HT 1-1 Puebla Puebla MEK
10.01.2023 Pachuca Pachuca 5-1 HT 2-1 Puebla Puebla MEK
08.09.2022 Puebla Puebla 2-2 HT 1-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
20.04.2022 Pachuca Pachuca 1-0 HT 1-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pachuca
2-1
AWAY Puebla
1.27 xG 0.16
65% Ball Possession 35%
18 Total Shots 2
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
405 Passes 182
83% Pass Accuracy 71%
23 Box Touches 3
16 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Pachuca vs Puebla
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pachuca edged past Puebla 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Pachuca as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Pachuca had 65% of the ball to Puebla's 35%, shots finished 18-2, expected goals 1.27 to 0.16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pachuca had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Pachuca and 1.17 for Puebla.

What was the final score of Pachuca vs Puebla?

Pachuca 2-1 Puebla in the Mexico - Primera on 27/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pachuca vs Puebla?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pachuca win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Pachuca 49%, draw 27%, Puebla 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pachuca) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pachuca) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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