Danubio 1-1 Defensor Sporting — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 27 Mar 2025

📅27/03/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.8
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
33%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.54
Over 2.5
38%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.03
No
56%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
13%
X/1
16%
X/2
15%
X/X
7%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
32%
+7.0pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.8pp
33%
Away Win
39%
-6.1pp
62%
Under 2.5
61%
+1.2pp
38%
Over 2.5
39%
-1.2pp
44%
BTTS Yes
45%
-0.8pp
56%
BTTS No
55%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Danubio EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Defensor Sporting EU Bookmakers 43%
+1% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +9%
0.99/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/0.95
-13% / +63% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +17%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
238 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Danubio
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Defensor Sporting
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 3
05.10.2024 Danubio Danubio 1-1 HT 1-0 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU
31.03.2024 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 1-0 HT 0-0 Danubio Danubio URU
14.03.2024 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 1-0 HT 0-0 Danubio Danubio URUK
07.12.2023 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 0-2 HT 0-1 Danubio Danubio URU
15.07.2023 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 2-1 HT 1-0 Danubio Danubio URU
14.05.2023 Danubio Danubio 1-1 HT 1-0 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Danubio
1-1
AWAY Defensor Sporting
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 22
3 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Danubio vs Defensor Sporting
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Danubio and Defensor Sporting shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (39% / 28% / 33%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, under 2.5 goals (62%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, Danubio had 44% of the ball to Defensor Sporting's 56%, shots finished 12-22.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Defensor Sporting led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Danubio and 1.00 for Defensor Sporting.

What was the final score of Danubio vs Defensor Sporting?

Danubio 1-1 Defensor Sporting in the Uruguay - Premier League on 27/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Danubio vs Defensor Sporting?

Before kick-off our model rated a Danubio win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Danubio 39%, draw 28%, Defensor Sporting 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Danubio), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Danubio) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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