IFK Lulea 2-3 Bergnäsets — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - 2nd Division Östra Götaland, 27 Apr 2024

📅27/04/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.8
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
21%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.63
Over 2.5
60%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.43
No
44%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
19%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
11%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
52%
+4.1pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.1pp
21%
Away Win
24%
-3.1pp
40%
Under 2.5
34%
+5.7pp
60%
Over 2.5
66%
-5.7pp
56%
BTTS Yes
66%
-10.2pp
44%
BTTS No
34%
+10.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME IFK Lulea EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Bergnäsets EU Bookmakers 28%
-16% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
0.89/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.38
-55% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +44%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
409 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
5.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME IFK Lulea
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Bergnäsets
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 4
6 Yellow Cards 2
30.09.2023 Bergnäsets Bergnäsets 2-1 HT 1-0 IFK Lulea IFK Lulea İSÇ4
29.05.2023 IFK Lulea IFK Lulea 0-1 HT 0-0 Bergnäsets Bergnäsets İSÇ4
17.09.2022 Bergnäsets Bergnäsets 1-2 HT 1-2 IFK Lulea IFK Lulea İSÇ4
POST-MATCH IFK Lulea vs Bergnäsets
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bergnäsets squeezed past IFK Lulea 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had IFK Lulea at 56% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Bergnäsets led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for IFK Lulea and 1.33 for Bergnäsets.

What was the final score of IFK Lulea vs Bergnäsets?

IFK Lulea 2-3 Bergnäsets in the Sweden - 2nd Division Östra Götaland on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for IFK Lulea vs Bergnäsets?

Before kick-off our model rated a IFK Lulea win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split IFK Lulea 56%, draw 23%, Bergnäsets 21%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (IFK Lulea) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (IFK Lulea) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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