Navalcarnero 1-1 Cacereno — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 27 Apr 2025

📅27/04/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
34%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
53%
1.67
Over
47%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.95
No
52%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1
30%
2-3
37%
4-5
22%
6+
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
16%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
46%
-6.1pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.4pp
34%
Away Win
27%
+6.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
56%
-3.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
44%
+3.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.3pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Navalcarnero EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Cacereno EU Bookmakers 31%
+0% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +14%
1.49/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.34
+15% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / -10%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
234 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.3 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Navalcarnero
1W-0D-4L
AWAY Cacereno
0.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
15.12.2024 Cacereno Cacereno 3-1 HT 2-1 Navalcarnero Navalcarnero İS4
14.01.2024 Navalcarnero Navalcarnero 0-2 HT 0-0 Cacereno Cacereno İS4
03.09.2023 Cacereno Cacereno 2-0 HT 1-0 Navalcarnero Navalcarnero İS4
29.01.2023 Navalcarnero Navalcarnero 1-0 HT 0-0 Cacereno Cacereno İS4
11.09.2022 Cacereno Cacereno 1-0 HT 0-0 Navalcarnero Navalcarnero İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Navalcarnero
1-1
AWAY Cacereno
64% Ball Possession 36%
16 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Navalcarnero vs Cacereno
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Navalcarnero and Cacereno couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (40% / 27% / 34%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Navalcarnero had 64% of the ball to Cacereno's 36%, shots finished 16-6.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Cacereno led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.40 goals for Navalcarnero and 1.60 for Cacereno.

What was the final score of Navalcarnero vs Cacereno?

Navalcarnero 1-1 Cacereno in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Navalcarnero vs Cacereno?

Before kick-off our model rated a Navalcarnero win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Navalcarnero 40%, draw 27%, Cacereno 34%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Navalcarnero), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Navalcarnero) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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