Cacereno 3-1 Navalcarnero — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 15 Dec 2024

📅15/12/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.76
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
23%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
58%
1.62
Over
42%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.06
No
58%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1
33%
2-3
40%
4-5
18%
6+
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
19%
X/2
6%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
53%
-5.3pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.3pp
23%
Away Win
20%
+3.1pp
58%
Under 2.5
58%
+0.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
42%
-0.2pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.9pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cacereno EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Navalcarnero EU Bookmakers 23%
-9% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +0%
1.37/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/0.89
-12% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +49%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
328 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cacereno
3W-0D-1L
AWAY Navalcarnero
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 0.25
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 3
14.01.2024 Navalcarnero Navalcarnero 0-2 HT 0-0 Cacereno Cacereno İS4
03.09.2023 Cacereno Cacereno 2-0 HT 1-0 Navalcarnero Navalcarnero İS4
29.01.2023 Navalcarnero Navalcarnero 1-0 HT 0-0 Cacereno Cacereno İS4
11.09.2022 Cacereno Cacereno 1-0 HT 0-0 Navalcarnero Navalcarnero İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cacereno
3-1
AWAY Navalcarnero
45% Ball Possession 55%
17 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Cacereno vs Navalcarnero
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cacereno got the better of Navalcarnero 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Cacereno as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cacereno had 45% of the ball to Navalcarnero's 55%, shots finished 17-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Cacereno had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Cacereno and 0.25 for Navalcarnero.

What was the final score of Cacereno vs Navalcarnero?

Cacereno 3-1 Navalcarnero in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 15/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cacereno vs Navalcarnero?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cacereno win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Cacereno 48%, draw 29%, Navalcarnero 23%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cacereno) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cacereno) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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