Vaduz 1-0 Etoile Carouge — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 27 Apr 2025

📅27/04/2025 · 🕒15:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.57
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
41%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.1
Over 2.5
54%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.56
No
48%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.9
2-3 Goals
44%
1.82
4-5 Goals
22%
2.97
6+ Goals
11%
9.28
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
6%
X/2
6%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
29%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
35%
-1.3pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.8pp
41%
Away Win
40%
+0.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.6pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vaduz EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Etoile Carouge EU Bookmakers 45%
+12% / +31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -12%
1.55/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.44
+15% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -29%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
290 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 78%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
15.8 Crosses 10.2
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vaduz
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Etoile Carouge
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.15 xG 1.27
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
294 Passes 425
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 16
10 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 1
02.03.2025 Etoile Carouge Etoile Carouge 3-2 HT 2-0 Vaduz Vaduz İSV2
14.12.2024 Vaduz Vaduz 3-2 HT 1-1 Etoile Carouge Etoile Carouge İSV2
24.09.2024 Etoile Carouge Etoile Carouge 1-0 HT 1-0 Vaduz Vaduz İSV2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vaduz
1-0
AWAY Etoile Carouge
2.18 xG 0.85
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 8
348 Passes 480
85% Pass Accuracy 88%
26 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Vaduz vs Etoile Carouge
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vaduz nicked a narrow win over Etoile Carouge 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Etoile Carouge at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Vaduz had 43% of the ball to Etoile Carouge's 57%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 2.18 to 0.85 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Vaduz's control.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Etoile Carouge led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Vaduz and 2.00 for Etoile Carouge.

What was the final score of Vaduz vs Etoile Carouge?

Vaduz 1-0 Etoile Carouge in the Switzerland Challenge League on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vaduz vs Etoile Carouge?

Before kick-off our model rated an Etoile Carouge win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Vaduz 33%, draw 26%, Etoile Carouge 41%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Etoile Carouge) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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