Hamburg 1-2 Karlsruher SC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 27 Apr 2025

Hamburg
1-2 HT 1-2
Karlsruher SC
📅27/04/2025 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Hamburg vs Karlsruher SC Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.53
Draw
24%
4.34
Away
23%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under
35%
2.89
Over Pick
65%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.49
No
39%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1
16%
6.51
2-3
37%
2.16
4-5
31%
2.46
6+
16%
4.91
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.85
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
15.0
X/1
15%
4.47
X/2
9%
12.0
X/X
9%
7.74
2/1 ✗
10%
18.0
2/2
9%
8.15
2/X
8%
16.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.0 — our 10% vs market 3.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 65% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
61%
-7.6pp
24%
Draw
20%
+4.0pp
23%
Away Win
19%
+3.7pp
34%
Under 2.5
31%
+3.4pp
66%
Over 2.5
69%
-3.4pp
61%
BTTS Yes
63%
-2.0pp
39%
BTTS No
37%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hamburg v Karlsruher SC — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hamburg EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Karlsruher SC EU Bookmakers 22%
-5% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -5%
2.04/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.76
+13% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -8%
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 4
441 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 74%
30.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
22.4 Crosses 19.3
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.9

Hamburg vs Karlsruher SC Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hamburg
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Karlsruher SC
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.75 xG 2.02
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
422 Passes 279
84% Pass Accuracy 75%
31 Box Touches 23
25 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.12.2024 Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC 1-3 HT 1-1 Hamburg Hamburg AL2
28.01.2024 Hamburg Hamburg 3-4 HT 2-2 Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC AL2
06.08.2023 Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC 2-2 HT 1-0 Hamburg Hamburg AL2
12.03.2023 Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC 4-2 HT 3-0 Hamburg Hamburg AL2
03.09.2022 Hamburg Hamburg 1-0 HT 1-0 Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC AL2
16.04.2022 Hamburg Hamburg 3-0 HT 2-0 Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC AL2

Hamburg 1-2 Karlsruher SC — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hamburg
1-2
AWAY Karlsruher SC
1.60 xG 1.54
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 1
446 Passes 315
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
33 Box Touches 21
24 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Hamburg vs Karlsruher SC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karlsruher SC squeezed past Hamburg 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Hamburg at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (66%), both teams to score (61%) came in.

On the day, Hamburg had 57% of the ball to Karlsruher SC's 43%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 1.60 to 1.54.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hamburg had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Hamburg and 1.83 for Karlsruher SC.

What was the final score of Hamburg vs Karlsruher SC?

Hamburg 1-2 Karlsruher SC in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hamburg vs Karlsruher SC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hamburg win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Hamburg 53%, draw 24%, Karlsruher SC 23%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Hamburg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hamburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL2 More Germany - 2. Bundesliga
27 Apr 2025
14:30 Hannover 96 vs Köln Analysis →
14:30 Kaiserslautern vs Schalke 04 Analysis →