Gor Mahia 4-0 TransMara Sugar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kenya - Premier League, 27 Apr 2025

📅27/04/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.64
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
23%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.56
Over 2.5
46%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.29
No
54%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
6%
X/X
10%
2/1
4%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
57%
-3.8pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.5pp
23%
Away Win
17%
+6.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
60%
-6.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
40%
+6.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
40%
+6.8pp
54%
BTTS No
60%
-6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gor Mahia EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY TransMara Sugar EU Bookmakers 20%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -21% / -21%
1.72/0.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.73
+24% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -25%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
388 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 0.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gor Mahia
1W-0D-0L
AWAY TransMara Sugar
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
60% Ball Possession 40%
12 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 1
30.11.2024 TransMara Sugar TransMara Sugar 0-2 HT 0-0 Gor Mahia Gor Mahia KEN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gor Mahia
4-0
AWAY TransMara Sugar
51% Ball Possession 49%
3 Total Shots 2
1 Shots on Target 1
0 Corners 2
POST-MATCH Gor Mahia vs TransMara Sugar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gor Mahia ran out comfortable winners over TransMara Sugar 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Gor Mahia as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Gor Mahia had 51% of the ball to TransMara Sugar's 49%, shots finished 3-2.

What was the final score of Gor Mahia vs TransMara Sugar?

Gor Mahia 4-0 TransMara Sugar in the Kenya - Premier League on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gor Mahia vs TransMara Sugar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gor Mahia win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Gor Mahia 53%, draw 23%, TransMara Sugar 23%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gor Mahia), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gor Mahia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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