Mathare United vs Tusker Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Mathare United v Tusker — Team-Based Signals
Mathare United vs Tusker Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings
4-1
HT 2-1
Mathare United
KEN2
Mathare United 2-1 Tusker — Actual Match Statistics
Mathare United squeezed past Tusker 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
Our pre-match lean was Tusker at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Mathare United had 50% of the ball to Tusker's 50%, shots finished 14-14.
Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Tusker led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Mathare United and 3.00 for Tusker.
What was the final score of Mathare United vs Tusker?
Mathare United 2-1 Tusker in the Kenya - Premier League on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Mathare United vs Tusker?
Before kick-off our model rated an Tusker win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Mathare United 29%, draw 24%, Tusker 47%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.