Sarpsborg 08 2-3 Stromsgodset — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - Eliteserien, 27 Apr 2025

📅27/04/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.8
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
26%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.21
Over 2.5
57%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.6
No
41%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.54
2-3 Goals
38%
1.94
4-5 Goals
26%
3.0
6+ Goals
14%
8.74
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.36
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
13.25
X/1
16%
4.66
X/2
10%
8.76
X/X
15%
5.74
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
21.15
2/2
11%
6.22
2/X
4%
14.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.15 — our 8% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
52%
-3.6pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.7pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+1.8pp
43%
Under 2.5
41%
+1.5pp
57%
Over 2.5
59%
-1.5pp
59%
BTTS Yes
58%
+0.8pp
41%
BTTS No
42%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sarpsborg 08 EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Stromsgodset EU Bookmakers 28%
-10% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +3%
1.57/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.64
-12% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +6%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
390 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 78%
28.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
23.4 Crosses 16.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sarpsborg 08
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Stromsgodset
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
2.19 xG 1.58
62% Ball Possession 38%
18 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 4
439 Passes 246
84% Pass Accuracy 75%
34 Box Touches 24
28 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.09.2024 Stromsgodset Stromsgodset 2-1 HT 2-1 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
26.05.2024 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 1-3 HT 0-1 Stromsgodset Stromsgodset NOR
12.08.2023 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 1-2 HT 1-0 Stromsgodset Stromsgodset NOR
09.07.2023 Stromsgodset Stromsgodset 5-2 HT 3-2 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
07.08.2022 Stromsgodset Stromsgodset 3-1 HT 2-0 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
18.06.2022 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 5-1 HT 4-1 Stromsgodset Stromsgodset NOR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sarpsborg 08
2-3
AWAY Stromsgodset
2.06 xG 1.65
51% Ball Possession 49%
18 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 3
366 Passes 353
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
30 Box Touches 11
27 Crosses 14
POST-MATCH Sarpsborg 08 vs Stromsgodset
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stromsgodset edged past Sarpsborg 08 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Sarpsborg 08 at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, Sarpsborg 08 had 51% of the ball to Stromsgodset's 49%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 2.06 to 1.65 — the balance of chances actually favoured Sarpsborg 08.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Stromsgodset led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Sarpsborg 08 and 2.67 for Stromsgodset.

What was the final score of Sarpsborg 08 vs Stromsgodset?

Sarpsborg 08 2-3 Stromsgodset in the Norway - Eliteserien on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sarpsborg 08 vs Stromsgodset?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sarpsborg 08 win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Sarpsborg 08 48%, draw 26%, Stromsgodset 26%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sarpsborg 08) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sarpsborg 08) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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