Krylya Sovetov 2-0 FK Orenburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 27 Apr 2025

📅27/04/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.82
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
31%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.15
Over 2.5
46%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.61
No
53%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
4.29
2-3 Goals
39%
1.92
4-5 Goals
22%
3.1
6+ Goals
9%
9.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.29 — our 30% vs market 19.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.43
1/2
8%
35.0
1/X
5%
13.7
X/1
14%
4.61
X/2
15%
8.32
X/X
12%
5.69
2/1
7%
21.45
2/2
9%
5.98
2/X
9%
14.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
51%
-8.5pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.4pp
31%
Away Win
25%
+6.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
43%
+11.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
57%
-11.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
58%
-10.5pp
53%
BTTS No
42%
+10.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Krylya Sovetov EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Orenburg EU Bookmakers 29%
-9% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -3%
1.62/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.44
-16% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -1%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
304 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 76%
26.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
22.1 Crosses 16.5
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Krylya Sovetov
1W-3D-2L
AWAY FK Orenburg
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.85 xG 1.33
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
301 Passes 306
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
35 Box Touches 21
22 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
20.10.2024 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 2-2 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov RUS
04.05.2024 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 2-1 HT 1-0 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov RUS
28.10.2023 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov 1-1 HT 1-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
02.04.2023 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov 1-1 HT 1-1 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
16.07.2022 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 2-4 HT 1-0 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov RUS
29.11.2020 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 2-1 HT 1-0 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov RUS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Krylya Sovetov
2-0
AWAY FK Orenburg
2.20 xG 0.67
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 11
326 Passes 325
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
29 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 24
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Krylya Sovetov vs FK Orenburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Krylya Sovetov beat FK Orenburg 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Krylya Sovetov as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Krylya Sovetov had 49% of the ball to FK Orenburg's 51%, shots finished 11-16, expected goals 2.20 to 0.67.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FK Orenburg led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Krylya Sovetov and 1.67 for FK Orenburg.

What was the final score of Krylya Sovetov vs FK Orenburg?

Krylya Sovetov 2-0 FK Orenburg in the Russia - Premier League on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Krylya Sovetov vs FK Orenburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Krylya Sovetov win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Krylya Sovetov 42%, draw 26%, FK Orenburg 31%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Krylya Sovetov), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Krylya Sovetov) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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