BG Pathum United 4-4 Sukhothai — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Thailand - 1st Division, 27 Apr 2025

📅27/04/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.43
Draw
21%
4.49
Away
18%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
Over 2.5
54%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.61
No
50%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
26%
X/2
4%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
7%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
65%
-4.7pp
21%
Draw
19%
+2.3pp
18%
Away Win
16%
+2.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.6pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BG Pathum United EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Sukhothai EU Bookmakers 19%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.69/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.62
+16% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -39%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
394 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 78%
27.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
24.3 Crosses 18.1
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BG Pathum United
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Sukhothai
3.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.55 xG 1.32
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
463 Passes 247
88% Pass Accuracy 78%
28 Box Touches 17
25 Crosses 17
0 Yellow Cards 2
10.08.2024 Sukhothai Sukhothai 1-3 HT 1-2 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United TAY
09.03.2024 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United 7-1 HT 4-0 Sukhothai Sukhothai TAY
09.11.2022 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United 0-1 HT 0-0 Sukhothai Sukhothai TAY
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BG Pathum United
4-4
AWAY Sukhothai
2.52 xG 1.43
66% Ball Possession 34%
28 Total Shots 10
10 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 3
501 Passes 234
90% Pass Accuracy 83%
27 Box Touches 10
21 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH BG Pathum United vs Sukhothai
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BG Pathum United and Sukhothai shared the points in a 4-4 draw. It was 4-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. BG Pathum United carried 61% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, BG Pathum United had 66% of the ball to Sukhothai's 34%, shots finished 28-10, expected goals 2.52 to 1.43.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, BG Pathum United had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 3.33 goals for BG Pathum United and 1.00 for Sukhothai.

What was the final score of BG Pathum United vs Sukhothai?

BG Pathum United 4-4 Sukhothai in the Thailand - 1st Division on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BG Pathum United vs Sukhothai?

Before kick-off our model rated a BG Pathum United win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split BG Pathum United 61%, draw 21%, Sukhothai 18%. The final score 4-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (BG Pathum United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (BG Pathum United) ✓ Over 2.5
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