Nacional de Football 3-1 Montevideo Wanderers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 27 Apr 2025

📅27/04/2025 · 🕒02:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.34
Draw
23%
4.49
Away
19%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.03
Over 2.5
55%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.06
No
51%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
19%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
11%
2/2
7%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
70%
-11.4pp
23%
Draw
19%
+4.4pp
19%
Away Win
12%
+6.9pp
45%
Under 2.5
45%
-0.5pp
55%
Over 2.5
55%
+0.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
44%
+4.4pp
51%
BTTS No
56%
-4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional de Football EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Montevideo Wanderers EU Bookmakers 15%
-4% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -8%
2.19/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.59/2.19
+29% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / -19%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
378 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nacional de Football
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Montevideo Wanderers
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
55% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
16.09.2024 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers 0-2 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
03.03.2024 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 3-0 HT 1-0 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers URU
27.11.2023 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 3-1 HT 3-0 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers URU
25.04.2023 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers 0-1 HT 0-0 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
21.08.2022 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 2-0 HT 1-0 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers URU
21.03.2022 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers 2-2 HT 0-0 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nacional de Football
3-1
AWAY Montevideo Wanderers
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Nacional de Football vs Montevideo Wanderers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nacional de Football beat Montevideo Wanderers 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Nacional de Football as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Nacional de Football had 58% of the ball to Montevideo Wanderers's 42%, shots finished 15-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nacional de Football had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Nacional de Football and 0.50 for Montevideo Wanderers.

What was the final score of Nacional de Football vs Montevideo Wanderers?

Nacional de Football 3-1 Montevideo Wanderers in the Uruguay - Premier League on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional de Football vs Montevideo Wanderers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional de Football win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Nacional de Football 58%, draw 23%, Montevideo Wanderers 19%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nacional de Football), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nacional de Football) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
URU More Uruguay - Premier League
27 Apr 2025
16:45 Torque vs Defensor Sporting Analysis →
19:00 Boston River vs Miramar Misiones Analysis →
21:15 Progreso vs Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Analysis →