Kalmar 2-1 Elfsborg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Allsvenskan, 27 Apr 2026

Kalmar
2-1 HT 1-1
Elfsborg
📅27/04/2026 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Sweden - Allsvenskan – 2026

Kalmar vs Elfsborg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.33
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
35%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.67
Over 2.5
39%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.62
2-3 Goals
41%
1.73
4-5 Goals
15%
4.14
6+ Goals
9%
20.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.62 — our 35% vs market 31.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.58
1/2
8%
33.5
1/X
6%
13.3
X/1
18%
5.21
X/2
14%
5.84
X/X
13%
4.08
2/1
7%
30.5
2/2
13%
4.28
2/X
9%
13.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
39%
-1.1pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.8pp
35%
Away Win
33%
+1.9pp
61%
Under 2.5
56%
+4.7pp
39%
Over 2.5
44%
-4.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.7pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Kalmar v Elfsborg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kalmar EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Elfsborg EU Bookmakers 37%
-5% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -5%
1.25/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.39
-17% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -23%
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
437 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 80%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.2
18.3 Crosses 20.0
1.1 Yellow Cards 2.3

Kalmar vs Elfsborg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kalmar
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Elfsborg
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.77 xG 1.92
56% Ball Possession 44%
10 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
478 Passes 346
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Box Touches 33
13 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
29.09.2024 Kalmar Kalmar 1-3 HT 1-2 Elfsborg Elfsborg İSÇ
22.04.2024 Elfsborg Elfsborg 1-2 HT 0-1 Kalmar Kalmar İSÇ
17.09.2023 Elfsborg Elfsborg 0-3 HT 0-3 Kalmar Kalmar İSÇ
09.07.2023 Kalmar Kalmar 0-4 HT 0-1 Elfsborg Elfsborg İSÇ
09.10.2022 Elfsborg Elfsborg 0-2 HT 0-2 Kalmar Kalmar İSÇ
24.07.2022 Kalmar Kalmar 1-0 HT 0-0 Elfsborg Elfsborg İSÇ

Kalmar 2-1 Elfsborg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kalmar
2-1
AWAY Elfsborg
1.01 xG 0.40
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 3
369 Passes 426
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
28 Box Touches 18
6 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Kalmar vs Elfsborg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kalmar edged past Elfsborg 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 28% / 35% — and on the day Kalmar made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Kalmar had 46% of the ball to Elfsborg's 54%, shots finished 8-6, expected goals 1.01 to 0.40.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kalmar had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Kalmar and 1.33 for Elfsborg.

What was the final score of Kalmar vs Elfsborg?

Kalmar 2-1 Elfsborg in the Sweden - Allsvenskan on 27/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kalmar vs Elfsborg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kalmar win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Kalmar 38%, draw 28%, Elfsborg 35%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kalmar) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kalmar) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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