Novorizontino 2-1 Vila Nova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 27 Jun 2026

📅27/06/2026 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.82
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
23%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.62
Over 2.5
40%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.03
No
52%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.45
2-3 Goals
43%
1.7
4-5 Goals
17%
4.27
6+ Goals
8%
22.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
9%
X/2
9%
X/X
8%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
13%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
51%
-3.4pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.9pp
23%
Away Win
22%
+1.4pp
60%
Under 2.5
58%
+2.5pp
40%
Over 2.5
42%
-2.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
45%
+3.2pp
52%
BTTS No
55%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Novorizontino EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Vila Nova EU Bookmakers 25%
-1% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +6%
1.40/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.21
+13% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -1%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
317 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 75%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.7
25.7 Crosses 15.3
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Novorizontino
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Vila Nova
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.21 xG 0.93
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
237 Passes 252
72% Pass Accuracy 73%
20 Box Touches 14
24 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
28.09.2025 Novorizontino Novorizontino 1-1 HT 0-1 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
31.05.2025 Vila Nova Vila Nova 0-1 HT 0-1 Novorizontino Novorizontino BR2
31.08.2024 Novorizontino Novorizontino 2-0 HT 0-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
15.05.2024 Vila Nova Vila Nova 2-1 HT 0-0 Novorizontino Novorizontino BR2
30.07.2023 Novorizontino Novorizontino 3-1 HT 2-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
15.04.2023 Vila Nova Vila Nova 2-1 HT 2-0 Novorizontino Novorizontino BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Novorizontino
2-1
AWAY Vila Nova
2.16 xG 0.53
51% Ball Possession 49%
18 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
267 Passes 263
74% Pass Accuracy 72%
30 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Novorizontino vs Vila Nova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Novorizontino edged past Vila Nova 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Novorizontino as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Novorizontino had 51% of the ball to Vila Nova's 49%, shots finished 18-9, expected goals 2.16 to 0.53 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Novorizontino's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Novorizontino had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Novorizontino and 1.00 for Vila Nova.

What was the final score of Novorizontino vs Vila Nova?

Novorizontino 2-1 Vila Nova in the Brazil - Serie B on 27/06/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Novorizontino vs Vila Nova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Novorizontino win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Novorizontino 48%, draw 29%, Vila Nova 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Novorizontino) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Novorizontino) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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