FK Pardubice 0-1 Karvina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Czech Republic - Czech Liga, 27 Jul 2024

📅27/07/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.33
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
33%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.91
Over 2.5
43%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.66
No
56%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
3.52
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
20%
3.4
6+ Goals
9%
12.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.52 — our 32% vs market 23.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
21%
X/2
12%
X/X
16%
2/1
5%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
39%
+0.1pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.5pp
33%
Away Win
34%
-1.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
48%
+8.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
52%
-8.2pp
44%
BTTS Yes
56%
-11.8pp
56%
BTTS No
44%
+11.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FK Pardubice EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Karvina EU Bookmakers 38%
+9% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.57/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/0.69
+15% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +87%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
298 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 78%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
11.2 Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FK Pardubice
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Karvina
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.28 xG 1.14
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
326 Passes 262
79% Pass Accuracy 74%
30 Box Touches 22
12 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.05.2024 FK Pardubice FK Pardubice 4-0 HT 2-0 Karvina Karvina ÇEK
14.02.2024 Karvina Karvina 0-3 HT 0-1 FK Pardubice FK Pardubice ÇEK
13.08.2023 FK Pardubice FK Pardubice 2-1 HT 1-0 Karvina Karvina ÇEK
07.05.2022 FK Pardubice FK Pardubice 2-0 HT 2-0 Karvina Karvina ÇEK
20.04.2022 Karvina Karvina 3-2 HT 1-1 FK Pardubice FK Pardubice ÇEK
24.07.2021 FK Pardubice FK Pardubice 2-2 HT 0-1 Karvina Karvina ÇEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FK Pardubice
0-1
AWAY Karvina
0.51 xG 2.09
36% Ball Possession 64%
9 Total Shots 22
2 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 3
166 Passes 384
64% Pass Accuracy 82%
14 Box Touches 28
11 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH FK Pardubice vs Karvina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karvina nicked a narrow win over FK Pardubice 1-0 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 28% / 33% — and on the day Karvina made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

On the day, FK Pardubice had 36% of the ball to Karvina's 64%, shots finished 9-22, expected goals 0.51 to 2.09 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Karvina's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FK Pardubice had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for FK Pardubice and 1.00 for Karvina.

What was the final score of FK Pardubice vs Karvina?

FK Pardubice 0-1 Karvina in the Czech Republic - Czech Liga on 27/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FK Pardubice vs Karvina?

Before kick-off our model rated a FK Pardubice win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split FK Pardubice 39%, draw 28%, Karvina 33%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (FK Pardubice) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FK Pardubice) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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