Arjantin U23 3-1 Irak U23 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Olympics, 27 Jul 2024

📅27/07/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.37
Draw
29%
4.34
Away
25%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.95
Over 2.5
53%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
2.13
No
49%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.5
2-3 Goals
33%
1.8
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
31%
3.41
6+ Goals
8%
12.8
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.41 — our 31% vs market 23.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.63
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
11%
20.75
X/1
12%
3.39
X/2
7%
17.3
X/X
11%
6.05
2/1
4%
25.5
2/2
11%
15.05
2/X
6%
21.85
Value flag · 1/X at 20.75 — our 11% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
69%
-22.5pp
28%
Draw
20%
+8.4pp
25%
Away Win
11%
+14.1pp
47%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
43%
+7.8pp
49%
BTTS No
57%
-7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arjantin U23 EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Irak U23 EU Bookmakers 14%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
377 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 211 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arjantin U23
3-1
AWAY Irak U23
1.62 xG 0.30
68% Ball Possession 32%
19 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
537 Passes 222
88% Pass Accuracy 78%
34 Box Touches 7
16 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Arjantin U23 vs Irak U23
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arjantin U23 got the better of Irak U23 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Arjantin U23 as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Arjantin U23 had 68% of the ball to Irak U23's 32%, shots finished 19-6, expected goals 1.62 to 0.30.

What was the final score of Arjantin U23 vs Irak U23?

Arjantin U23 3-1 Irak U23 in the Olympics on 27/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arjantin U23 vs Irak U23?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arjantin U23 win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Arjantin U23 46%, draw 28%, Irak U23 25%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arjantin U23), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Arjantin U23) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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