Japonya U23 1-0 Mali U23 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Olympics, 27 Jul 2024

📅27/07/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.61
Draw
30%
3.94
Away
21%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.23
Over 2.5
47%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.66
No
53%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
4.6
2-3 Goals
43%
1.9
4-5 Goals
22%
2.87
6+ Goals
7%
8.18
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.6 — our 28% vs market 16.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.01
1/2
3%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.5
X/1
14%
3.96
X/2
7%
10.35
X/X EV+ ✗
20%
6.28
2/1
7%
20.4
2/2
11%
7.37
2/X
3%
15.95
Value flag · X/X at 6.28 — our 20% vs market 11.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
58%
-8.7pp
30%
Draw
22%
+7.5pp
21%
Away Win
20%
+1.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
41%
+11.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
59%
-11.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.1pp
53%
BTTS No
44%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Japonya U23 EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Mali U23 EU Bookmakers 23%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
376 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Japonya U23
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Mali U23
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
62% Ball Possession 38%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 3
0 Yellow Cards 2
22.03.2024 Japonya U23 Japonya U23 1-3 HT 1-1 Mali U23 Mali U23 HU23
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Japonya U23
1-0
AWAY Mali U23
0.87 xG 1.82
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
391 Passes 386
85% Pass Accuracy 85%
26 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Japonya U23 vs Mali U23
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Japonya U23 squeezed past Mali U23 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Japonya U23 as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Japonya U23 had 50% of the ball to Mali U23's 50%, shots finished 10-16, expected goals 0.87 to 1.82 — the balance of chances actually favoured Mali U23.

What was the final score of Japonya U23 vs Mali U23?

Japonya U23 1-0 Mali U23 in the Olympics on 27/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Japonya U23 vs Mali U23?

Before kick-off our model rated a Japonya U23 win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Japonya U23 49%, draw 30%, Mali U23 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Japonya U23), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Japonya U23) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
OLY More Olympics
27 Jul 2024
16:00 Arjantin U23 vs Irak U23 Analysis →
16:00 Dominik Cumhuriyeti U23 vs İspanya U23 Analysis →
18:00 Özbekistan U23 vs Mısır U23 Analysis →
18:00 Ukrayna U23 vs Fas U23 Analysis →
20:00 Yeni Zelanda U23 vs ABD U23 Analysis →
22:00 Fransa U23 vs Gine U23 Analysis →