IFK Varnamo 2-3 Hammarby — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Allsvenskan, 27 Jul 2025

📅27/07/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
4.48
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
46%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.1
Over 2.5
47%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.13
2-3 Goals
38%
1.9
4-5 Goals
22%
3.17
6+ Goals
11%
10.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.13 — our 29% vs market 19.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
8.18
1/2
8%
21.45
1/X
7%
16.55
X/1
11%
10.5
X/2
11%
4.23
X/X
11%
5.89
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
27%
2.05
2/X
8%
14.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
19%
+8.8pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.6pp
46%
Away Win
58%
-11.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+9.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-9.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.7pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME IFK Varnamo EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Hammarby EU Bookmakers 62%
+15% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +14%
1.12/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.72/1.04
-6% / +52% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / +46%
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
249 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 411 · 82%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.0
17.8 Crosses 18.8
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME IFK Varnamo
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Hammarby
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.94 xG 1.44
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
304 Passes 523
78% Pass Accuracy 86%
18 Box Touches 30
12 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.07.2025 Hammarby Hammarby 1-0 HT 0-0 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo İSÇ
17.08.2024 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo 0-3 HT 0-1 Hammarby Hammarby İSÇ
05.05.2024 Hammarby Hammarby 1-2 HT 0-0 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo İSÇ
04.11.2023 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo 0-0 HT 0-0 Hammarby Hammarby İSÇ
29.05.2023 Hammarby Hammarby 0-2 HT 0-0 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo İSÇ
31.07.2022 Hammarby Hammarby 1-2 HT 0-0 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo İSÇ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME IFK Varnamo
2-3
AWAY Hammarby
1.57 xG 2.33
35% Ball Possession 65%
12 Total Shots 22
7 Shots on Target 10
3 Corners 6
211 Passes 486
72% Pass Accuracy 86%
24 Box Touches 50
13 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hammarby edged past IFK Varnamo 3-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Hammarby as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, IFK Varnamo had 35% of the ball to Hammarby's 65%, shots finished 12-22, expected goals 1.57 to 2.33.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, IFK Varnamo had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for IFK Varnamo and 1.00 for Hammarby.

What was the final score of IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby?

IFK Varnamo 2-3 Hammarby in the Sweden - Allsvenskan on 27/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hammarby win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split IFK Varnamo 28%, draw 26%, Hammarby 46%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hammarby) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hammarby) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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