Wiedenbrück 2-4 Sportfreunde Lotte — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 27 Sep 2024

📅27/09/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.84
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
40%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.18
Over 2.5
49%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.55
No
50%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
16%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
18%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 51%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
32%
+1.9pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.6pp
40%
Away Win
44%
-3.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
42%
+8.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
58%
-8.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
60%
-10.4pp
50%
BTTS No
40%
+10.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Wiedenbrück EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Sportfreunde Lotte EU Bookmakers 48%
+0% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +19%
1.24/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.09/0.80
-10% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +60%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
264 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 435 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.8 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Wiedenbrück
1W-3D-1L
AWAY Sportfreunde Lotte
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
26.02.2022 Wiedenbrück Wiedenbrück 1-1 HT 1-1 Sportfreunde Lotte Sportfreunde Lotte ALMBÖL
10.11.2021 Sportfreunde Lotte Sportfreunde Lotte 0-2 HT 0-2 Wiedenbrück Wiedenbrück ALMBÖL
05.06.2021 Sportfreunde Lotte Sportfreunde Lotte 2-2 HT 1-0 Wiedenbrück Wiedenbrück ALMBÖL
29.08.2014 Sportfreunde Lotte Sportfreunde Lotte 1-1 HT 0-0 Wiedenbrück Wiedenbrück ALMBÖL
08.02.2014 Wiedenbrück Wiedenbrück 0-1 HT 0-0 Sportfreunde Lotte Sportfreunde Lotte ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH Wiedenbrück vs Sportfreunde Lotte
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sportfreunde Lotte got the better of Wiedenbrück 4-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (34% / 26% / 40%) promised a tight game; Sportfreunde Lotte found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Wiedenbrück and 1.00 for Sportfreunde Lotte.

What was the final score of Wiedenbrück vs Sportfreunde Lotte?

Wiedenbrück 2-4 Sportfreunde Lotte in the Germany - Regional League on 27/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Wiedenbrück vs Sportfreunde Lotte?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sportfreunde Lotte win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Wiedenbrück 34%, draw 26%, Sportfreunde Lotte 40%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sportfreunde Lotte) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sportfreunde Lotte) ✗ Under 2.5
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