Bregenz 3-2 First Vienna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - 1st Division, 27 Sep 2024

📅27/09/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.67
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
43%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.1
Over 2.5
56%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.6
No
48%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.05
2-3 Goals
37%
1.84
4-5 Goals
27%
3.09
6+ Goals
11%
9.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
4.07
1/2
4%
24.0
1/X EV+ ✗
8%
13.4
X/1
10%
6.17
X/2
10%
5.08
X/X
10%
5.29
2/1
4%
28.5
2/2
29%
3.11
2/X
7%
13.3
Value flag · 1/X at 13.4 — our 8% vs market 4.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
34%
-2.3pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.3pp
43%
Away Win
41%
+2.0pp
44%
Under 2.5
44%
+0.5pp
56%
Over 2.5
56%
-0.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.7pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bregenz EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY First Vienna EU Bookmakers 45%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -21% / -21%
0.98/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.32
-34% / +61% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% / -3%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
283 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 381 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.0
Crosses 10.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bregenz
2W-0D-0L
AWAY First Vienna
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
34% Ball Possession 66%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 9
2 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
17.02.2024 First Vienna First Vienna 1-2 HT 0-0 Bregenz Bregenz AU2
28.07.2023 Bregenz Bregenz 2-0 HT 2-0 First Vienna First Vienna AU2
POST-MATCH Bregenz vs First Vienna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bregenz squeezed past First Vienna 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was First Vienna at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Bregenz had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Bregenz and 0.50 for First Vienna.

What was the final score of Bregenz vs First Vienna?

Bregenz 3-2 First Vienna in the Austria - 1st Division on 27/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bregenz vs First Vienna?

Before kick-off our model rated an First Vienna win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Bregenz 32%, draw 25%, First Vienna 43%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (First Vienna) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (First Vienna) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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