Martigues 1-1 Dunkerque — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 27 Sep 2024

📅27/09/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.99
Draw
27%
2.94
Away
43%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.62
Over 2.5
45%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.9
No
53%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.57
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.58
6+ Goals
8%
24.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.98
1/2
7%
31.0
1/X
4%
13.45
X/1
14%
6.46
X/2 EV+ ✗
24%
4.8
X/X
20%
3.8
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
11%
3.27
2/X
3%
13.1
Value flag · X/2 at 4.8 — our 24% vs market 16.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
30%
+1.0pp
27%
Draw
30%
-3.3pp
43%
Away Win
40%
+2.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
58%
-3.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
42%
+3.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.0pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Martigues EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Dunkerque EU Bookmakers 45%
-31% / -34% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -50% / -50%
0.70/1.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.23/1.16
-100% / -54% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -66%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
267 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 395 · 80%
12.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.0
16.0 Crosses 8.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Martigues
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Dunkerque
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
18 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.04.2023 Martigues Martigues 1-0 HT 0-0 Dunkerque Dunkerque FR3
02.12.2022 Dunkerque Dunkerque 0-1 HT 0-0 Martigues Martigues FR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Martigues
1-1
AWAY Dunkerque
1.36 xG 1.90
29% Ball Possession 71%
7 Total Shots 21
2 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 9
173 Passes 536
67% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 37
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Martigues vs Dunkerque
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Martigues and Dunkerque couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Dunkerque at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Martigues had 29% of the ball to Dunkerque's 71%, shots finished 7-21, expected goals 1.36 to 1.90.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Martigues had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Martigues and 0.00 for Dunkerque.

What was the final score of Martigues vs Dunkerque?

Martigues 1-1 Dunkerque in the France - Ligue 2 on 27/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Martigues vs Dunkerque?

Before kick-off our model rated an Dunkerque win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Martigues 31%, draw 27%, Dunkerque 43%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Dunkerque), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Dunkerque) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FR2 More France - Ligue 2
27 Sep 2024
21:00 Lorient vs Ajaccio Analysis →
21:00 Stade Lavallois vs Pau Analysis →
21:00 Grenoble vs Clermont Analysis →
21:00 Bastia vs Annecy Analysis →
21:00 Amiens SC vs Rodez Analysis →