Quevilly 1-2 Le Mans FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - National League 1, 27 Sep 2024

📅27/09/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.46
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
36%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.75
No
56%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.08
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.8
6+ Goals
8%
16.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.08 — our 32% vs market 26.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
3.66
1/2
8%
30.5
1/X
6%
13.1
X/1
7%
5.37
X/2
10%
5.62
X/X
13%
4.37
2/1
6%
29.5
2/2
18%
3.91
2/X
7%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+1.4pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.4pp
36%
Away Win
35%
+1.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.0pp
44%
BTTS Yes
53%
-9.4pp
56%
BTTS No
47%
+9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Quevilly EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Le Mans FC EU Bookmakers 38%
+6% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +20%
1.14/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.09
-10% / +63% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +9%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
293 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Quevilly
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Le Mans FC
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
37% Ball Possession 63%
8 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 12
2 Corners 12
15.01.2021 Quevilly Quevilly 2-0 HT 1-0 Le Mans FC Le Mans FC FR3
28.08.2020 Le Mans FC Le Mans FC 2-2 HT 0-2 Quevilly Quevilly FR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Quevilly
1-2
AWAY Le Mans FC
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Quevilly vs Le Mans FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Le Mans FC edged past Quevilly 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (38% / 26% / 36%) promised a tight game; Le Mans FC found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Quevilly had 52% of the ball to Le Mans FC's 48%, shots finished 9-9.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Quevilly had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Quevilly and 1.00 for Le Mans FC.

What was the final score of Quevilly vs Le Mans FC?

Quevilly 1-2 Le Mans FC in the France - National League 1 on 27/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Quevilly vs Le Mans FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Quevilly win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Quevilly 38%, draw 26%, Le Mans FC 36%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Quevilly) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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