Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar II Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Excelsior v AZ Alkmaar II — Team-Based Signals
Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar II Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-3
HT 1-1
AZ Alkmaar II
HOL2
0-2
HT 0-0
Excelsior
HOL2
2-1
HT 2-1
Excelsior
HOL2
4-1
HT 0-0
AZ Alkmaar II
HOL2
3-3
HT 0-1
AZ Alkmaar II
HOL2
1-2
HT 0-1
Excelsior
HOL2
Excelsior 4-2 AZ Alkmaar II — Actual Match Statistics
Excelsior beat AZ Alkmaar II 4-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Excelsior as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Excelsior had 45% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar II's 55%, shots finished 21-7, expected goals 3.51 to 0.45.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Excelsior had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Excelsior and 1.67 for AZ Alkmaar II.
What was the final score of Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar II?
Excelsior 4-2 AZ Alkmaar II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 27/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar II?
Before kick-off our model rated a Excelsior win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Excelsior 57%, draw 25%, AZ Alkmaar II 18%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Excelsior), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.