St. Pauli 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 27 Sep 2025

St. Pauli
1 - 2 HT 1 - 1
Bayer Leverkusen
📅27/09/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✓ 2nd Score 1-3 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2025/2026

St. Pauli vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
41%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under
48%
1.95
Over
52%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
56%
1.64
No
44%
2.12
Total Goals
0-1
25%
3.38
2-3
46%
1.77
4-5
23%
3.3
6+
6%
12.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
4.33
1/2
3%
25.5
1/X
6%
12.75
X/1
11%
6.39
X/2
14%
5.33
X/X
17%
4.68
2/1
3%
30.0
2/2
23%
3.27
2/X
5%
12.45
STRENGTH — pattern support: Good → Great · fuller bar = deeper record. Informational.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome.

St. Pauli v Bayer Leverkusen — Team-Based Signals

SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME St. Pauli The Market 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen The Market 43%
Weak Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Average
1.12 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 1.88
1.08 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 1.48
Bad Attack Strength Average
Great Defense Strength Average
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
300 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 430 · 79%
22 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25
22 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2

St. Pauli vs Bayer Leverkusen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Pauli
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.46 xG 0.82
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 5
328 Passes 545
81% Pass Accuracy 88%
20 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
20.04.2025 St. Pauli St. Pauli 1-1 HT 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
07.12.2024 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 HT 2-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL1
04.09.2014 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 HT 1-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli HAZ
10.04.2011 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 HT 0-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL1
13.11.2010 St. Pauli St. Pauli 0-1 HT 0-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
04.08.2007 St. Pauli St. Pauli 1-0 HT 0-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AFK

St. Pauli 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Pauli
1 - 2
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
0.82 xG 0.88
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 4
13 Corners 1
372 Passes 414
83% Pass Accuracy 85%
19 Box Touches 9
31 Crosses 4
3 Yellow Cards 5
REVIEW St. Pauli vs Bayer Leverkusen
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Bayer Leverkusen found just enough to beat St. Pauli 2-1 on the road. It stood 1-1 at the interval — everything that mattered happened after the restart.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Bayer Leverkusen as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

By the numbers, St. Pauli had 49% of the ball to Bayer Leverkusen's 51%, shots finished 13-5, expected goals 0.82 to 0.88.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for St. Pauli and 1.33 for Bayer Leverkusen.

St. Pauli vs Bayer Leverkusen Result & Final Score

St. Pauli 1 - 2 Bayer Leverkusen in the Germany - Bundesliga on 27/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

St. Pauli vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated an Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split St. Pauli 32%, draw 27%, Bayer Leverkusen 41%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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