Mainz 05 0-2 Borussia Dortmund — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 27 Sep 2025

📅27/09/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
2.99
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
48%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under
40%
2.21
Over
60%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
61%
1.51
No
39%
2.39
Total Goals
0-1
19%
4.35
2-3
45%
1.87
4-5
28%
2.82
6+
8%
8.02
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.87
1/2
4%
21.65
1/X
5%
13.2
X/1
10%
7.34
X/2
16%
5.01
X/X
14%
5.53
2/1
2%
30.0
2/2
29%
2.72
2/X
5%
12.6
STRENGTH — pattern support: Good → Great · fuller bar = deeper record. Informational.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome.
SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Mainz 05 The Market 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Borussia Dortmund The Market 49%
Average Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Average
1.32 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 2.05
1.49 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 1.42
Average Attack Strength Strong
Strong Defense Strength Average
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
291 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 397 · 80%
25 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25
18 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mainz 05
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.49 xG 1.81
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
286 Passes 482
74% Pass Accuracy 83%
24 Box Touches 28
15 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
30.03.2025 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 3-1 HT 2-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
09.11.2024 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 3-1 HT 2-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
11.05.2024 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 3-0 HT 3-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
19.12.2023 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 1-1 HT 1-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
27.05.2023 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 2-2 HT 0-2 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
25.01.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 1-2 HT 1-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mainz 05
0 - 2
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
0.48 xG 1.44
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
275 Passes 300
75% Pass Accuracy 77%
15 Box Touches 17
21 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 1
REVIEW Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Borussia Dortmund beat Mainz 05 2-0 on the road.

The way our numbers pointed is the way it went: our model had Borussia Dortmund as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The one blemish: over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (61%) never looked like landing.

By the numbers, Mainz 05 had 49% of the ball to Borussia Dortmund's 51%, shots finished 8-10, expected goals 0.48 to 1.44.

The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Mainz 05 and 1.50 for Borussia Dortmund.

Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund Result & Final Score

Mainz 05 0 - 2 Borussia Dortmund in the Germany - Bundesliga on 27/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated an Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Mainz 05 27%, draw 25%, Borussia Dortmund 48%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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