Harju Jalgpallikool 1-2 Parnu JK Vaprus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 27 Sep 2025

📅27/09/2025 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
3.17
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
41%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.21
Over 2.5
59%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.55
No
38%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
10%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
14%
X/X
7%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
28%
+8.6pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.2pp
41%
Away Win
48%
-7.4pp
41%
Under 2.5
41%
-0.1pp
59%
Over 2.5
59%
+0.1pp
62%
BTTS Yes
60%
+1.8pp
38%
BTTS No
40%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Harju Jalgpallikool EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus EU Bookmakers 52%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -20% / -20%
1.41/2.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/1.35
+3% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -19%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
281 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 426 · 86%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Harju Jalgpallikool
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 2
25.07.2025 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 2-2 HT 1-1 Harju Jalgpallikool Harju Jalgpallikool EST1
26.04.2025 Harju Jalgpallikool Harju Jalgpallikool 0-1 HT 0-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
05.04.2025 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 1-1 HT 1-0 Harju Jalgpallikool Harju Jalgpallikool EST1
27.10.2023 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 0-0 HT 0-0 Harju Jalgpallikool Harju Jalgpallikool EST1
02.09.2023 Harju Jalgpallikool Harju Jalgpallikool 0-4 HT 0-2 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
28.05.2023 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 0-1 HT 0-1 Harju Jalgpallikool Harju Jalgpallikool EST1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Harju Jalgpallikool
1-2
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus
59% Ball Possession 41%
20 Total Shots 4
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Harju Jalgpallikool vs Parnu JK Vaprus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Parnu JK Vaprus nicked a narrow win over Harju Jalgpallikool 2-1 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 23% / 41% — and on the day Parnu JK Vaprus made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (62%) came in.

On the day, Harju Jalgpallikool had 59% of the ball to Parnu JK Vaprus's 41%, shots finished 20-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Parnu JK Vaprus led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Harju Jalgpallikool and 1.33 for Parnu JK Vaprus.

What was the final score of Harju Jalgpallikool vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

Harju Jalgpallikool 1-2 Parnu JK Vaprus in the Estonia - Premium League on 27/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Harju Jalgpallikool vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

Before kick-off our model rated an Parnu JK Vaprus win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Harju Jalgpallikool 37%, draw 23%, Parnu JK Vaprus 41%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Parnu JK Vaprus), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Parnu JK Vaprus) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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