Jarun 2-1 HNK Cibalia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 2.HNL, 27 Sep 2025

📅27/09/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.53
Draw
32%
2.83
Away
33%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.51
Over 2.5
44%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.06
No
55%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
9%
X/X
22%
2/1
4%
2/2
19%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
36%
-0.7pp
32%
Draw
32%
-0.2pp
33%
Away Win
32%
+0.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
62%
-6.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
38%
+6.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.0pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jarun EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY HNK Cibalia EU Bookmakers 36%
-23% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
0.91/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.39
-6% / -35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -25%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
233 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jarun
0W-2D-1L
AWAY HNK Cibalia
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
45% Ball Possession 55%
7 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 4
08.11.2024 Jarun Jarun 1-2 HT 0-0 HNK Cibalia HNK Cibalia HIR2
01.09.2024 HNK Cibalia HNK Cibalia 1-1 HT 0-1 Jarun Jarun HIR2
18.05.2024 HNK Cibalia HNK Cibalia 1-1 HT 0-1 Jarun Jarun HIR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jarun
2-1
AWAY HNK Cibalia
36% Ball Possession 64%
6 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
0 Corners 5
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Jarun vs HNK Cibalia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jarun squeezed past HNK Cibalia 2-1.

Our pre-match split (35% / 32% / 33%) promised a tight game; Jarun found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Jarun had 36% of the ball to HNK Cibalia's 64%, shots finished 6-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, HNK Cibalia led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Jarun and 1.33 for HNK Cibalia.

What was the final score of Jarun vs HNK Cibalia?

Jarun 2-1 HNK Cibalia in the Croatia - 2.HNL on 27/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jarun vs HNK Cibalia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Jarun win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Jarun 35%, draw 32%, HNK Cibalia 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Jarun) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Jarun) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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