Sarpsborg 08 3-3 Viking — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - Eliteserien, 27 Sep 2025

📅27/09/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.32
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
51%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.61
Over 2.5
59%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.46
No
42%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.97
2-3 Goals
39%
2.1
4-5 Goals
27%
2.61
6+ Goals
13%
5.83
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
5.51
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
19.1
1/X
6%
13.7
X/1
9%
8.57
X/2
18%
4.85
X/X
10%
6.48
2/1
6%
31.0
2/2
25%
2.32
2/X
5%
12.9
Value flag · 1/2 at 19.1 — our 9% vs market 2.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
26%
+0.2pp
22%
Draw
22%
-0.1pp
51%
Away Win
51%
+0.0pp
41%
Under 2.5
35%
+6.5pp
59%
Over 2.5
65%
-6.5pp
58%
BTTS Yes
64%
-6.5pp
42%
BTTS No
36%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sarpsborg 08 EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Viking EU Bookmakers 56%
-4% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +2%
1.57/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.03/1.36
-2% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / -13%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
286 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 370 · 80%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 34.6
18.1 Crosses 23.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sarpsborg 08
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Viking
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.15 xG 1.61
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
382 Passes 344
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 26
21 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.07.2025 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 1-0 HT 0-0 Viking Viking NOK
04.05.2025 Viking Viking 0-0 HT 0-0 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
27.10.2024 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 1-2 HT 1-1 Viking Viking NOR
01.04.2024 Viking Viking 1-0 HT 1-0 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
12.11.2023 Viking Viking 2-1 HT 0-1 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
11.06.2023 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 1-3 HT 0-1 Viking Viking NOR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sarpsborg 08
3-3
AWAY Viking
1.75 xG 1.36
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 21
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 12
352 Passes 319
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 25
30 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Sarpsborg 08 vs Viking
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sarpsborg 08 and Viking couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 1-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Viking at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Sarpsborg 08 had 52% of the ball to Viking's 48%, shots finished 10-21, expected goals 1.75 to 1.36.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Viking led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Sarpsborg 08 and 1.33 for Viking.

What was the final score of Sarpsborg 08 vs Viking?

Sarpsborg 08 3-3 Viking in the Norway - Eliteserien on 27/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sarpsborg 08 vs Viking?

Before kick-off our model rated an Viking win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Sarpsborg 08 26%, draw 22%, Viking 51%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Viking) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Viking) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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