Korona Kielce 3-0 Lechia Gdansk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 27 Sep 2025

📅27/09/2025 · 🕒15:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.9
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
24%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.91
Over 2.5
55%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.73
No
44%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.27
2-3 Goals
38%
1.74
4-5 Goals
25%
3.26
6+ Goals
12%
12.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.62
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
10%
13.25
X/1
14%
4.62
X/2
10%
7.63
X/X
10%
4.9
2/1 EV+ ✗
14%
23.85
2/2
8%
5.68
2/X
5%
14.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.85 — our 14% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
49%
+1.7pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.2pp
24%
Away Win
26%
-1.5pp
45%
Under 2.5
48%
-3.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
52%
+3.1pp
56%
BTTS Yes
54%
+2.5pp
44%
BTTS No
46%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Korona Kielce EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Lechia Gdansk EU Bookmakers 29%
+15% / +31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -4%
1.58/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.96
+26% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -28%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
312 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 78%
24.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
15.6 Crosses 17.1
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Korona Kielce
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Lechia Gdansk
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.46 xG 1.25
43% Ball Possession 57%
17 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
262 Passes 378
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
27 Box Touches 23
19 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.05.2025 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 3-2 HT 2-0 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
09.11.2024 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 0-0 HT 0-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
18.02.2023 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 1-0 HT 1-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
06.08.2022 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 0-1 HT 0-1 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
01.03.2020 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 1-2 HT 0-1 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
21.09.2019 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 2-0 HT 1-0 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Korona Kielce
3-0
AWAY Lechia Gdansk
1.49 xG 1.22
44% Ball Possession 56%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
227 Passes 314
74% Pass Accuracy 79%
26 Box Touches 16
15 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Korona Kielce vs Lechia Gdansk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Korona Kielce swept aside Lechia Gdansk 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Korona Kielce as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (55%) landed while both teams to score (56%) missed.

On the day, Korona Kielce had 44% of the ball to Lechia Gdansk's 56%, shots finished 17-10, expected goals 1.49 to 1.22.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lechia Gdansk led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Korona Kielce and 1.17 for Lechia Gdansk.

What was the final score of Korona Kielce vs Lechia Gdansk?

Korona Kielce 3-0 Lechia Gdansk in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 27/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Korona Kielce vs Lechia Gdansk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Korona Kielce win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Korona Kielce 50%, draw 25%, Lechia Gdansk 24%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Korona Kielce), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Korona Kielce) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POL More Poland - Ekstraklasa
27 Sep 2025
18:30 Piast Gliwice vs Nieciecza Analysis →
21:15 Cracovia Krakow vs Gornik Zabrze Analysis →