Lokomotiv Moscow 1-0 Rubin Kazan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 27 Sep 2025

📅27/09/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.82
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
22%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.97
Over 2.5
46%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.69
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
23%
3.33
6+ Goals
9%
11.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.69 — our 28% vs market 22.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.43
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.7
X/1
22%
4.43
X/2
10%
8.15
X/X
12%
5.22
2/1
7%
22.55
2/2
5%
6.14
2/X
8%
14.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
51%
+2.0pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.0pp
21%
Away Win
24%
-3.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
47%
+7.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
53%
-7.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.6pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Rubin Kazan EU Bookmakers 28%
+2% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +7%
1.51/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.48
+16% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -8%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
342 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 72%
25.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
16.0 Crosses 14.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Rubin Kazan
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.93 xG 1.19
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
391 Passes 244
79% Pass Accuracy 71%
31 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.04.2025 Rubin Kazan Rubin Kazan 1-0 HT 0-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
02.11.2024 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 1-0 HT 0-0 Rubin Kazan Rubin Kazan RUS
20.04.2024 Rubin Kazan Rubin Kazan 1-1 HT 1-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
01.11.2023 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 3-0 HT 3-0 Rubin Kazan Rubin Kazan RUK
08.08.2023 Rubin Kazan Rubin Kazan 0-1 HT 0-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUK
22.07.2023 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 2-2 HT 1-1 Rubin Kazan Rubin Kazan RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow
1-0
AWAY Rubin Kazan
0.97 xG 0.71
62% Ball Possession 38%
10 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 6
439 Passes 212
81% Pass Accuracy 68%
20 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lokomotiv Moscow vs Rubin Kazan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiv Moscow squeezed past Rubin Kazan 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Lokomotiv Moscow as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Lokomotiv Moscow had 62% of the ball to Rubin Kazan's 38%, shots finished 10-8, expected goals 0.97 to 0.71.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lokomotiv Moscow had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Lokomotiv Moscow and 0.67 for Rubin Kazan.

What was the final score of Lokomotiv Moscow vs Rubin Kazan?

Lokomotiv Moscow 1-0 Rubin Kazan in the Russia - Premier League on 27/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiv Moscow vs Rubin Kazan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lokomotiv Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiv Moscow 53%, draw 25%, Rubin Kazan 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow) ✓ Under 2.5
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