Fatih Karagümrük 3-4 Trabzonspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 27 Sep 2025

📅27/09/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.99
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
42%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.91
Over 2.5
47%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.7
No
47%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.33
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
3.34
6+ Goals
11%
12.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.33 — our 30% vs market 23.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.89
1/2
6%
24.3
1/X
7%
13.6
X/1
9%
6.84
X/2
18%
4.89
X/X
14%
4.83
2/1
7%
32.5
2/2
18%
2.92
2/X
6%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
30%
+1.0pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.7pp
42%
Away Win
44%
-1.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
55%
-1.3pp
47%
BTTS No
45%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fatih Karagümrük EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Trabzonspor EU Bookmakers 48%
+9% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +17%
1.26/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.14
+6% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +32%
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
279 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 376 · 79%
19.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
16.2 Crosses 14.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fatih Karagümrük
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Trabzonspor
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
0.89 xG 1.84
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
300 Passes 492
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 27
11 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
08.05.2024 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 0-4 HT 0-0 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor TÜK
24.04.2024 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor 3-2 HT 2-1 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TÜK
09.03.2024 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor 5-1 HT 1-1 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
29.10.2023 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 0-0 HT 0-0 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor TSL
22.05.2023 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor 4-1 HT 3-1 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
28.12.2022 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 4-1 HT 2-1 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fatih Karagümrük
3-4
AWAY Trabzonspor
1.70 xG 1.77
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 22
3 Shots on Target 11
1 Corners 7
248 Passes 361
71% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 33
11 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Trabzonspor nicked a narrow win over Fatih Karagümrük 4-3 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Trabzonspor as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Fatih Karagümrük had 44% of the ball to Trabzonspor's 56%, shots finished 13-22, expected goals 1.70 to 1.77.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Trabzonspor led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 2.83 for Trabzonspor.

What was the final score of Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor?

Fatih Karagümrük 3-4 Trabzonspor in the Turkey - Super League on 27/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor?

Before kick-off our model rated an Trabzonspor win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Fatih Karagümrük 31%, draw 27%, Trabzonspor 42%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Trabzonspor), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Trabzonspor) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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