One Knoxville 1-0 Charlotte Independence — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - USL League 1, 27 Sep 2025

📅27/09/2025 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.96
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
25%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.82
Over 2.5
50%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.75
No
44%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
12%
2/2
8%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
47%
+0.4pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.8pp
25%
Away Win
26%
-1.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
51%
-1.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
49%
+1.3pp
56%
BTTS Yes
53%
+2.8pp
44%
BTTS No
47%
-2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME One Knoxville EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Charlotte Independence EU Bookmakers 30%
+1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.22/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.59
-15% / +50% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -19%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
324 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 76%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
18.6 Crosses 16.6
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME One Knoxville
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Charlotte Independence
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.41 xG 0.96
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
466 Passes 310
88% Pass Accuracy 82%
30 Box Touches 17
24 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
31.07.2025 One Knoxville One Knoxville 2-2 HT 1-1 Charlotte Independence Charlotte Independence USL1
17.05.2025 Charlotte Independence Charlotte Independence 3-1 HT 1-1 One Knoxville One Knoxville USL1
07.09.2024 One Knoxville One Knoxville 1-1 HT 0-1 Charlotte Independence Charlotte Independence USL1
17.03.2024 Charlotte Independence Charlotte Independence 1-2 HT 0-0 One Knoxville One Knoxville USL1
01.10.2023 Charlotte Independence Charlotte Independence 1-1 HT 0-1 One Knoxville One Knoxville USL1
27.08.2023 One Knoxville One Knoxville 1-1 HT 0-0 Charlotte Independence Charlotte Independence USL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME One Knoxville
1-0
AWAY Charlotte Independence
2.05 xG 0.18
65% Ball Possession 35%
15 Total Shots 4
4 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 2
493 Passes 217
87% Pass Accuracy 71%
27 Box Touches 12
27 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH One Knoxville vs Charlotte Independence
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

One Knoxville nicked a narrow win over Charlotte Independence 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had One Knoxville as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, One Knoxville had 65% of the ball to Charlotte Independence's 35%, shots finished 15-4, expected goals 2.05 to 0.18 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold One Knoxville's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for One Knoxville and 1.50 for Charlotte Independence.

What was the final score of One Knoxville vs Charlotte Independence?

One Knoxville 1-0 Charlotte Independence in the USA - USL League 1 on 27/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for One Knoxville vs Charlotte Independence?

Before kick-off our model rated a One Knoxville win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split One Knoxville 48%, draw 27%, Charlotte Independence 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (One Knoxville) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (One Knoxville) ✗ BTTS Yes
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