Viktoria Plzen 1-0 Sparta Prag — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Czech Republic - Czech Liga, 27 Oct 2024

📅27/10/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.33
Draw
23%
3.28
Away
38%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.82
Over 2.5
52%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.73
No
47%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.22
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
3.65
6+ Goals
13%
15.05
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.65 — our 24% vs market 22.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
14%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
39%
-0.3pp
23%
Draw
27%
-4.1pp
38%
Away Win
33%
+4.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
51%
-2.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
49%
+2.9pp
53%
BTTS Yes
54%
-1.2pp
47%
BTTS No
46%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Viktoria Plzen EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Sparta Prag EU Bookmakers 37%
+41% / +41% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -6%
2.21/0.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.13/2.21
+113% / +78% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -32%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
349 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 72%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.0
23.0 Crosses 10.0
3.6 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Viktoria Plzen
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Sparta Prag
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.48 xG 1.36
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
372 Passes 308
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
26.05.2024 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag 1-1 HT 1-0 Viktoria Plzen Viktoria Plzen ÇEK
22.05.2024 Viktoria Plzen Viktoria Plzen 1-2 HT 0-0 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag ÇEKK
10.03.2024 Viktoria Plzen Viktoria Plzen 4-0 HT 1-0 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag ÇEK
30.09.2023 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag 2-1 HT 2-1 Viktoria Plzen Viktoria Plzen ÇEK
27.05.2023 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag 0-1 HT 0-0 Viktoria Plzen Viktoria Plzen ÇEK
26.04.2023 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag 2-1 HT 1-1 Viktoria Plzen Viktoria Plzen ÇEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Viktoria Plzen
1-0
AWAY Sparta Prag
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 3
282 Passes 318
70% Pass Accuracy 73%
19 Box Touches 16
12 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Viktoria Plzen vs Sparta Prag
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Viktoria Plzen squeezed past Sparta Prag 1-0.

Our pre-match split (39% / 23% / 38%) promised a tight game; Viktoria Plzen found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Viktoria Plzen had 48% of the ball to Sparta Prag's 52%, shots finished 12-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sparta Prag led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Viktoria Plzen and 1.17 for Sparta Prag.

What was the final score of Viktoria Plzen vs Sparta Prag?

Viktoria Plzen 1-0 Sparta Prag in the Czech Republic - Czech Liga on 27/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Viktoria Plzen vs Sparta Prag?

Before kick-off our model rated a Viktoria Plzen win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Viktoria Plzen 39%, draw 23%, Sparta Prag 38%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Viktoria Plzen) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Viktoria Plzen) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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